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Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, July 22, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Uncle Bo 0 0-1
7 7 Noted 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Ask Isaac 4.00 1.3 3-1
4 4 Noble Wave 5.00 1.4 3-1
5 5 Uncle Bo 8.00 1.8 3-1
6 6 Back Bayou 15.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Fortune Seller 3.00 2 4-1
2 2 Spirit Prince 6.00 2.2 4-1
9 9 Deterministic 2.50 SCRATCH
8 8 Dornoch 1.40 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 What’s Up Doc 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 Deputy Connect 3.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Inspeightoftrainer 12.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Paddington 1.80 4.5 8-1
6 6 Centavo 8.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Hang Tight 20.00 5 10-1
5 5 Ice Road 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1A 7 Cerretta 3.50 1 2-1
4 3 Voleuse 4.00 1.1 2-1
2 1 Spooky Lady 4.00 1.1 2-1
8 9 Shaman Princess 10.00 1.1 2-1
1 5 Bussia 3.50 4.6 9-1
6 6 Admire My Crown 15.00 5 9-1
3 2 Lady Fortuna 15.00 6 11-1
5 4 Healdsburg 3.00 SCRATCH
9 10 Be Best 3.50 SCRATCH
7 8 Strictly Taboo 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Inspector 4.00 1 2-1
8 8 Winning Connection 5.00 1.3 2-1
7 7 Achilles Heel 6.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 Husband Material 4.50 1.8 3-1
9 9 Strong Light 20.00 2 4-1
2 2 Yono 10.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Boys Code 20.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Break the Ice 15.00 6.1 11-1
1 1 Chileno 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Cupid’s Heart 4.00 1 2-1
1 1 Undervalued Asset 2.00 1.2 2-1
8 8 Zeitlos 5.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Dear Lady 5.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Huntress for Hire 3.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 To a T 12.00 4 8-1
4 4 Vienna Code 30.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Mia Bea Star 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Caress S.) – Caress S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Roses for Debra 1.80 1 2-1
2 2 Bubble Rock 2.00 1.7 3-1
4 4 Poppy Flower 3.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 Our Flash Drive 3.50 2.4 5-1
5 5 Wakanaka (IRE) 8.00 2.9 5-1
6 6 Bank On Anna 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Daily Grind 15.00 1 2-1
10 10 Trucker 15.00 1.2 2-1
5 5 Valentine Candy 3.00 1.3 2-1
6 6 Annointed 4.00 1.5 3-1
9 9 Protective 8.00 1.5 3-1
3 2 General Partner 4.50 1.6 3-1
7 7 Dive Bomber 5.00 1.6 3-1
1 3 Society Man 15.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Dancing Groom 30.00 2 4-1
8 8 World Fair 6.00 2.4 4-1
11 11 Ascendance 20.00 SCRATCH
1A 12 Hamilton’s Way 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 6 I’m Very Busy 1.20 1 2-1
3 2 Taking Candy 8.00 2.1 4-1
5 4 Fearless Soldier 6.00 2.3 4-1
4 3 Scramble 8.00 2.5 5-1
8 8 Mercante 10.00 4 8-1
7 7 Wico (IRE) 10.00 4.4 8-1
1A 10 Grand Giomar Step (IRE) 1.20 4.4 8-1
9 9 Harrington 15.00 7 13-1
2 1 Antares 6.00 9.2 17-1
10 11 Winters Lion 2.00 SCRATCH
11 12 Notah 8.00 SCRATCH
6 5 Heathguard 15.00 SCRATCH
12 13 Midnight Trouble 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Coaching Club American Oaks) – Coaching Club American Oaks

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Wet Paint 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Southlawn 4.50 2.7 5-1
3 3 Sacred Wish 10.00 2.9 5-1
4 4 Gambling Girl 2.50 3.5 7-1
6 6 She’s Lookin Lucky 10.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Hoosier Philly 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 A La Carte 8.00 1 2-1
8 8 Accretive 1.60 1.1 2-1
6 6 Daufuskie Island 2.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Bezos 50.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Bourbon Bash 15.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Victorious Wave 15.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Who Hoo Thats Me 5.00 SCRATCH
3 3 What’s Up Bro 20.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Talkin Pharoah 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 12 Saint Selby 15.00 1 2-1
1 2 Catchyasoon 3.50 1.3 2-1
8 8 Digital Future 8.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 Seven Nation Army 4.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Senor Jobim 8.00 6 11-1
9 9 Prince James 15.00 6 11-1
10 10 Steinbeck 15.00 6.6 12-1
4 4 Just Call Ray 8.00 7 13-1
5 5 Air Show 15.00 7.1 13-1
3 3 Where Paradise Lay 10.00 SCRATCH
2 1 Bronx Bomber 30.00 SCRATCH
12 13 Scilly Cay 6.00 SCRATCH
1A 11 Flint Ridge 3.50 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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