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Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Friday, July 14, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Awesome Czech 4.50 1 2-1
4 4 Book of Wisdom 6.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Run for Your Honey 4.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Concerti 3.50 2.3 4-1
3 3 Astoria Park 15.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Stormy Disco 12.00 SCRATCH
7 7 She Takes Cash 6.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Poseidon’s Mist 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Dreamlike 0.60 1 2-1
1 1 Hero’s Medal 20.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Mount Craig 6.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Ride Up 10.00 6.1 12-1
5 5 Moore’s Law 10.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 Ocasek 4.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 Exude 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Lifelovenlaughter 0 0-1
Lifelovenlaughter 0 0-1
7 7 Quarrel 8.00 1 2-1
1 1 Lifelovenlaughter 4.50 2.5 5-1
2 2 Modern Love 15.00 3.1 6-1
8 8 Stephanie’s Charm 20.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 G Laurie 4.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Royalty Interest (FR) 3.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Beautifulnavigator (IRE) 8.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Venencia (FR) 4.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Bolivie (IRE) 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Wilton S.) – Wilton S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Accede 0 0-1
4 4 Accede 1.60 1 2-1
5 5 Randomized 1.40 1.6 3-1
2 2 Unsung Melody 5.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Just Katherine 12.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Sacred Wish 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Scherzando 4.50 1 2-1
9 9 Empire Sky 3.50 3.5 7-1
5 5 Russi 8.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Whiskey and Wine 8.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Street Rod 6.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Henson 15.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Kid Kreesa 20.00 6.6 12-1
6 6 Charming Jim 12.00 6.6 12-1
3 3 Fuoco 5.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Holla At Your Boy 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Oglethorpe 6.00 1 2-1
2 2 Blue Devil 10.00 2.9 5-1
11 11 Alfio 12.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Shutters 2.50 SCRATCH
1 1 Danzigwiththestars 6.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Ouster 1.20 SCRATCH
6 6 Fighter in the Win 8.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Al’s Rocket 3.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Tiz a Giant 20.00 SCRATCH
10 10 The Prince’s Spur 2.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Battle of Normandy 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Heir Port 8.00 1 2-1
3 2 No More Talk 2.00 4.2 8-1
1A 8 Gandy Dancing 8.00 4.5 8-1
2 1 Bustin Shout 10.00 5.3 10-1
10 11 Striking Speed 6.00 5.5 10-1
6 5 First Deputy 10.00 6.1 11-1
4 3 High Tone 10.00 6.2 12-1
5 4 Cash Now 8.00 SCRATCH
9 10 Towing 6.00 SCRATCH
1 7 Poppy’s Pride 8.00 SCRATCH
8 9 Printrack 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Thinkaboutit 0 0-1
3 3 Cees Get Degrees 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 Happy Farm 6.00 2.4 4-1
9 9 Nifty 8.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Emerald Forest 12.00 4 8-1
6 6 Prime Factor 12.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Ram 15.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Thinkaboutit 20.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Jake Rocks 6.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Dot’s Dollar 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Coronation Cup S.) – Coronation Cup S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Anna’s Arabesque 8.00 1 2-1
9 9 L Street Lady 1.80 2.8 5-1
7 7 Unified Alliance 20.00 2.9 6-1
6 6 Wildhawk 30.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Love Appeals 3.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Bosserati 8.00 SCRATCH
1 1 My Sweet Affair 3.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Love Reigns (IRE) 1.40 SCRATCH
5 5 Violet Gibson (IRE) 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 More Than Work 10.00 1 2-1
15 15 Magnolia Midnight 2.50 4 8-1
8 8 Our Country 10.00 4.4 8-1
16 16 Valenzan Day 6.00 4.5 8-1
7 7 Invisible War 15.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Amani’s Eagle 10.00 SCRATCH
6 6 K P All Systems Go 15.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Truebelieve 20.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Arrio 12.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Hilliard 3.50 SCRATCH
14 14 Tallahatchiebridge 8.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Splendid Summer 8.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Encourage 5.00 SCRATCH
10 10 He’s Got It 30.00 SCRATCH
12 12 My Romeo Lima 4.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Penner Ash (IRE) 8.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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