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Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks for Tuesday, July 4, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Port Washington S.) – Port Washington S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Whatlovelookslike 4.00 1 2-1
1 1 Runaway Rumour 1.20 1.8 3-1
3 3 Golden Rocket 8.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Freddymo Factor 15.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Sanura 1.40 SCRATCH
6 6 Sunset Louise 1.20 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 I’m Just 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Refuah 4.00 2.4 4-1
6 6 Bastion 8.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Union Trail 4.50 3.7 7-1
1 1 Gossiping Pando 3.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Battleoflexington 3.50 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 4 Safe Conduct 4.00 1 2-1
1 2 Mackinnon 1.80 1.4 3-1
1A 3 Sy Dog 1.80 1.6 3-1
6 7 Portfolio Company 3.00 2.4 5-1
4 5 Master Piece (CHI) 3.50 2.5 5-1
2 1 St Anthony 5.00 3.1 6-1
5 6 Shooger Ray Too 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Frat Pack 1.80 1 2-1
5 5 Magico 2.50 1.6 3-1
1 1 Omni King 8.00 2 4-1
6 6 Disappearance 4.00 2 4-1
2 2 Golden Purchase 12.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Honor King 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Classic Mark 0 0-1
5 6 Mistical Curlin 2.00 1 2-1
4 5 Classic Mark 4.00 1.1 2-1
1 1 Arrebato 3.50 2 4-1
6 7 Warrior Richard 6.00 3.1 6-1
1A 4 Centavo 3.50 5.4 10-1
2 2 Inspeightoftrainer 8.00 5.5 10-1
7 8 Winning Connection 5.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Hang Tight 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Slipstream 8.00 1 2-1
1 3 Yes and Yes 2.50 2 4-1
6 6 Heaven Street 3.00 2 4-1
5 5 Lucky Curlin 3.50 2.8 5-1
4 4 Voodoo Zip 12.00 3.5 7-1
1A 8 Thin White Duke 2.50 3.7 7-1
7 7 Duke of Hazzard (FR) 4.50 4.2 8-1
2 1 Cazadero 6.00 4.3 8-1
8 9 Bourbon Calling 1.40 SCRATCH
9 10 Mr Phil 1.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Myriskyaffair 4.50 1 2-1
2 2 Amani’s Image 8.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Be Up 8.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Arina (GER) 3.00 5 9-1
9 9 Peace Seeker 12.00 6.6 13-1
10 10 Toned Up 1.80 SCRATCH
6 6 Federalist Papers 3.50 SCRATCH
5 5 Broadway Boogie 5.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Charmed Way 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Shad Nation 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 9 Awesome Indra 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 Icy Stare Down 2.50 1.4 3-1
1 3 Diva Banker 6.00 2.8 5-1
2 1 Mon Petit Chou 8.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 I’m Buzzy 12.00 2.9 6-1
7 8 Customerexperience 5.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Beautiful Karen 4.50 3.8 7-1
3 2 Alpine Queen 10.00 SCRATCH
1A 7 Happy Sophia 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Ortus 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Golden Arm 4.00 1.6 3-1
6 6 Feathers Road 12.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Be of Courage 4.50 4.3 8-1
9 9 King Moonracer 5.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Kreesa 15.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Be the Boss 6.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Factually Correct 20.00 5.7 11-1
10 10 Dr. Settle’s Dream 20.00 5.8 11-1
4 4 Eddie the Great 10.00 7.1 13-1
11 11 Agility 1.40 SCRATCH
12 12 Newport Bridge 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Mariah’s Fortune 0 0-1
1 1 Olkovskha (FR) 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Swoop to Finish 15.00 3.4 6-1
9 9 Anatolian 3.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Lullaby Land 10.00 6.4 12-1
5 5 Highland Grace 5.00 6.5 12-1
8 8 Pegs A. K. Girl 4.50 6.6 12-1
4 4 Rhombique 8.00 7 13-1
3 3 Out of Sight 12.00 7.1 13-1
7 7 Mariah’s Fortune 20.00 7.5 14-1
10 10 Sister Bridget (IRE) 30.00 10 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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