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Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, May 18, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Welcometomyworld 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Balentina 1.80 1.6 3-1
4 4 Accel Rose 2.50 1.9 4-1
5 5 Herecomes Scarlett 6.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Germany Jayvo 15.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Georgie’s Ladies 12.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Akiva 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 9 Caribbean (AUS) 2.50 1 2-1
6 4 Swift Tap 3.00 1.5 3-1
3 1 Royal Realm 10.00 2.5 5-1
1 5 Musical Heart 1.60 3.1 6-1
5 3 Mister Winston 15.00 4 8-1
2 6 Forever Wicked 5.00 4.1 8-1
2B 8 Dontbelate 5.00 4.3 8-1
4 2 American Lincoln 30.00 6.3 12-1
1A 7 Little Demon 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Trade Secret 6.00 1 2-1
2 2 Gypsy Janie 3.50 1.3 2-1
4 4 Twice Smitten 2.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Carly Hustle 6.00 1.8 3-1
7 7 Vallarand 4.00 4 8-1
3 3 Gringotts 10.00 4 8-1
8 8 Keen Dancer 12.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Redzilla 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Anileate 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Miss Kristy 5.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 Into Touring 4.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Rosemary Potatoes 6.00 2.3 4-1
7 7 Champagne Poetry 8.00 3.2 6-1
9 9 Heartburn 8.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Joeybignose 15.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 Lost Luggage 12.00 6.3 12-1
4 4 Irony 15.00 6.7 13-1
10 10 Yogi 2.50 SCRATCH
11 11 Joey the Fish 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Solib 0 0-1
1 1 Rum Runner Ready 10.00 1 2-1
7 7 Solib 8.00 1 2-1
5 5 Bustin Bullet 4.00 1.5 3-1
2 2 Up Her Sleeve 6.00 1.7 3-1
8 8 Bella Principessa 6.00 1.8 3-1
12 12 Lola Flo 6.00 3.8 7-1
10 10 Maddie’s Grace 5.00 5 9-1
11 11 Perfect Senorita 20.00 6.4 12-1
9 9 Game Theory 30.00 7.8 15-1
4 4 La Aguililla 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 R Girl Faith 30.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Irish Jackson 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 She Caught My Eye 2.50 SCRATCH
13 13 Carbon 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Tough Street 2.00 1 2-1
2 2 Lay the Groundwork 6.00 2 4-1
5 5 Toned Up 6.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Fireline 1.80 3.5 7-1
7 7 Vienna Code 20.00 4 8-1
4 4 Amity Island 30.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 With This Vow 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Following Sea 0.60 1 2-1
5 5 Chestertown 6.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Gun It 4.50 3.3 6-1
3 3 Three Two Zone 8.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Synthesis 10.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Tops the Chart 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Wonka 10.00 1 2-1
3 3 Mischievous Dream 10.00 1.5 3-1
8 8 Regal Realm 4.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Mrs. Green 4.50 2 4-1
6 6 Bahamian Club (IRE) 2.50 2.2 4-1
2 2 Miss Carol Ann (IRE) 6.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Breeze Easy (GB) 4.50 3 6-1
9 9 Sail By 12.00 4.5 9-1
4 4 In My Opinion 50.00 7.3 14-1
11 11 Honey Money 1.60 SCRATCH
10 10 Movie Moxy 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 My Cara Mia Mine 6.00 1 2-1
5 5 Queens Over Threes 8.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Pauciloquent 4.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Gotham Gray 8.00 3.4 7-1
4 4 Dance With Me Babe 10.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Dreaming of Carli 5.00 6.1 12-1
3 3 Giggling Ghost 15.00 6.5 12-1
7 7 Mary Katherine 10.00 7.9 15-1
11 11 Mizz Me 8.00 7.9 15-1
12 12 April First 15.00 8.2 16-1
9 9 Gracefulness 15.00 8.3 16-1
10 10 Purest Performance 15.00 10.3 19-1
13 13 Strange Fruit 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Ukrainian Princess 3.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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