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Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, May 13, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Wits and Wagers 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Toffee 3.00 1.1 2-1
3 3 Miss Analyzed 10.00 1.3 2-1
1 1 La Village Lumiere 5.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Graceful Union 3.50 2.5 5-1
5 5 Izabellabella 15.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Wing and a Player 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 La V. 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 My My Munny 8.00 1.8 3-1
7 7 Super Renee 3.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Crackalacking 12.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Je Suis Rapide 20.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Love of My Life 5.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Megan’s Clara 1.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 American Pure 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Solidify 5.00 1.2 2-1
5 5 Blue Kentucky 2.50 1.2 2-1
1 1 Soaring Bird 3.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Slam Dunk Sermon 4.50 2.8 5-1
7 7 Atta Boy Anthony 20.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Tapage 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Stay Lost 4.50 1 2-1
5 5 Okay Fine 3.50 1.4 3-1
1 1 Just Say So 4.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Shesasmalltowngirl 10.00 3.6 7-1
11 11 Exhibit Hall 8.00 5 9-1
2 2 Masterful Meg 15.00 7 13-1
8 8 Cecile 12.00 9.2 17-1
3 3 Strategerized 8.00 9.9 19-1
12 12 Evie’s Encore 12.00 10.5 20-1
9 9 Glamour Anna 20.00 10.6 20-1
10 10 Vanished 8.00 11.9 22-1
6 6 Em Kat 20.00 13 25-1
16 16 Sri Lanka 3.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Million Dollar Cat 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Bag Lady 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Callie’s Grit 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Mystic Night 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Digital 15.00 2.4 4-1
6 6 Huge Bigly 3.50 2.7 5-1
3 3 Mobster Gun 3.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Test Pilot 8.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Lord Captain 4.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Plot the Dots 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Floki’s Flight 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 Raymond 10.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Charging Aero 4.50 2.2 4-1
1 1 Heartbreaker 4.00 2.4 4-1
6 6 Lucky Boss 15.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Guntown 3.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Invisible War 8.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 Ram 5.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
F Five 0 0-1
5 5 Read On 20.00 1 2-1
1 1 Trending 6.00 1.3 2-1
2 2 F Five 10.00 2.5 5-1
9 9 Jarreau 4.00 2.9 6-1
7 7 Princely 30.00 3.3 6-1
11 11 Policy Option 8.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Always Above 6.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Fowler Blue 20.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Bold Looker 20.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Courageously 20.00 4.9 9-1
10 10 Bosque Redondo 6.00 7 13-1
13 13 Silent Steve 30.00 8 15-1
14 14 Shinnecock Hills 30.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Foreign Relations 3.50 SCRATCH
16 16 Golden Text 30.00 SCRATCH
15 15 El Ahijado 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Tepeu 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Costa Terra 4.50 1.3 2-1
3 3 Crump 3.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 American Icon 30.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Triple Elvis 10.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Jr’s Gift 30.00 4.3 8-1
9 9 Wake Surf 15.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Seven Flat 8.00 6 11-1
1 1 Single Ruler 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Adaline Julia 8.00 1 2-1
10 10 Mouffy 12.00 1.2 2-1
6 6 Portilla 4.50 3.3 6-1
12 12 Ironic Twist 5.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Somebody’s Problem 8.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 My Kentucky Girl 20.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Your So Sillea 4.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Fast Giselle 20.00 5.4 10-1
8 8 Street Jam 15.00 5.6 11-1
9 9 Love of My Heart 12.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Well Spent 12.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 Top Gun Girl 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (William Walker S.) – William Walker S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Private Creed 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Crispy Cat (GB) 5.00 1.9 4-1
5 5 No Nay Hudson (IRE) 6.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Gaslight Dancer 2.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Two of a Kind 6.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Gilcrease 15.00 4.9 9-1
8 8 Ah Jeez 15.00 5 9-1
4 4 Chiringo 8.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Magnificent Mile 5.00 1 2-1
11 11 Lupo’s Legacy 6.00 1.3 2-1
1 1 Speakinofthedevil 4.00 2.1 4-1
10 10 Lundberg 6.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Liberty’s Hauler 20.00 5.1 10-1
9 9 Alilnalot 8.00 5.8 11-1
12 12 Patton’s War 3.50 6.2 12-1
5 5 Own the Field 15.00 7.1 13-1
6 6 Cloud Without Rein 10.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Vigano 15.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Kupp 12.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Papa Alden 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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