Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Judge | 0 | 0-1 | |||
| 1 | 1 | Extra Anejo | 1.20 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Olazabal | 15.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Federal Judge | 2.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Stud Lovin | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dangerous Ride | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Deer District | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Backside Buzz | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Western Ghent | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chloe’s Dream | 0 | 0-1 | ||||
| 7 | 7 | Just a Photo | 15.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Quaternion | 6.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Quality Chic | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sir Rock | 15.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Real Naughty | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Chloe’s Dream | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Harbour Bridge | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Texas Pride | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Savage Kiss | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cape Trafalgar | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Shockwave | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coastal Defense | 0 | 0-1 | ||||
| 1 | 1 | Bright Future | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | King Ottoman | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | El Oriente (CHI) | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Super Design | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Petulante | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Embrace | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Pipes and Drums | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Coastal Defense | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Major Blue | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Brigadier General | 12.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Flags Up | 15.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mohaafeth | 50.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Violent City | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Major Fed | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Transect | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Derby City Distaff S. Presented By Kendall-jackson Winery) – Derby City Distaff S. Presented By Kendall-jackson Winery
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wicked Halo | 0 | 0-1 | |||
| Matareya | 0 | 0-1 | |||
| Goodnight Olive | 0 | 0-1 | |||
| 2 | 2 | Goodnight Olive | 0.80 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Wicked Halo | 3.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Matareya | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Travel Column | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Hot and Sultry | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | My Destiny | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S.) – Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Speak of the Devil (FR) | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Fluffy Socks | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Haughty | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Spendarella | 1.40 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Wakanaka (IRE) | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sharp Hero | 50.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sister Lou Ann | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Freedom Speaks | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Knicks Go Overnight S. Presented By L&n Federal Credit Union) – Knicks Go Overnight S. Presented By L&n Federal Credit Union
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Zozos | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Kupuna | 10.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Caddo River | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Baby Yoda | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Surly Furious | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Masqueparade | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Three Technique | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Promise Keeper | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Noble Drama | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Kneedeepinsnow | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gulfstream Way | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Perfect Flight | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Twin Spires Turf Sprint S. Presented By Cohere Health) – Twin Spires Turf Sprint S. Presented By Cohere Health
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Arrest Me Red | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Big Invasion | 3.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Go Bears Go (IRE) | 12.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Motorious (GB) | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bad Beat Brian | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Nobals | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Carotari | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Evan Sing | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Noble Reflection | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Just Might | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Oceanic | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Nothing Better | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Necker Island | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Artemus Citylimits | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Pat Day Mile S. Presented By Twinspires) – Pat Day Mile S. Presented By Twinspires
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Frosted Departure | 20.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Gun Pilot | 5.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lugan Knight | 20.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Echo Again | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Gilmore | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Fort Bragg | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tall Boy | 20.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Curly Jack | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bourbon Bash | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Damon’s Mound | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | General Jim | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Freezing Point | 50.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kangaroo Court | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Midnight Rising | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (American Turf S. Presented By Bmw) – American Turf S. Presented By Bmw
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Mendelssohns March | 12.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Major Dude | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Johannes | 15.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mo Stash | 10.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Far Bridge | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Carl Spackler (IRE) | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Desert Duke | 30.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Andthewinneris | 30.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Webslinger | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Anglophile | 50.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Scoobie Quando | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Behind Enemy Lines (GB) | 30.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Otago | 30.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Wadsworth | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Funtastic Again | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Talk of the Nation | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Churchill Downs S. Presented By Ford) – Churchill Downs S. Presented By Ford
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody’s Wish | 0 | 0-1 | ||||
| 7 | 7 | Cody’s Wish | 0.80 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tejano Twist | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Endorsed | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Fortin Hill | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Here Mi Song | 30.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hoist the Gold | 30.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Steal Sunshine | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Get Her Number | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sir Alfred James | 50.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | C Z Rocket | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | White Abarrio | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic S.) – Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up to the Mark | 0 | 0-1 | ||||
| 5 | 5 | Up to the Mark | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hong Kong Harry (IRE) | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Bye Bye Melvin | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Santin | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Earls Rock (IRE) | 10.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ocean Atlantique | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Spooky Channel | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Wolfie’s Dynaghost | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Steady On | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Master Piece (CHI) | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 12 (Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve) – Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Confidence Game | 0 | 0-1 | ||||
| Mage | 0 | 0-1 | ||||
| Hit Show | 0 | 0-1 | ||||
| Mage | 0 | 0-1 | ||||
| Mage | 0 | 0-1 | ||||
| Mage | 0 | 0-1 | ||||
| 6 | 6 | Kingsbarns | 12.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hit Show | 30.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Jace’s Road | 50.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tapit Trice | 5.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Reincarnate | 50.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Sun Thunder | 50.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Angel of Empire | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Verifying | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Disarm | 30.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mage | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 18 | 18 | Rocket Can | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Two Phil’s | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Confidence Game | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 17 | 17 | Derma Sotogake (JPN) | 10.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 21 | 21 | Cyclone Mischief | 30.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Raise Cain | 50.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
| 22 | 22 | Mandarin Hero (JPN) | 20.00 | 11.9 | 22-1 | |
| 23 | 23 | King Russell | 50.00 | 12.4 | 23-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Practical Move | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 20 | 20 | Continuar (JPN) | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 19 | 19 | Lord Miles | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Forte | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Skinner | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 13 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Shopper’s Revenge | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Seeking Unity | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | B Minor | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Classic Legacy | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Equivoque | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Promise Me a Ride | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bo Cruz | 5.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Funny Uncle | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Act a Fool | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Let It Ride | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Single Ruler | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 14 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dillinger | 0 | 0-1 | ||||
| 3 | 3 | Last Dawn | 20.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Mabuhay | 30.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Dillinger | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Macho Villa | 30.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Everso Mischievous | 2.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Golden Sombrero | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Noble Reality (FR) | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Eirik Ridge | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Five Star G Man | 30.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Northern Invader | 12.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Fear of Union | 15.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Le Bar | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Lookin for Roses | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Wicked Again | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Mullikin | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Simovic | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.