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Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, April 29, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Faneuil Hall 5.00 1 2-1
5 5 My Favorite Uncle 5.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 Texas Ted 4.50 2 4-1
1 1 Hail Allen 4.00 2.3 4-1
7 7 Bluegrass Lute 3.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Military Code 8.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 Mr. Yasuda 15.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Invasive 15.00 5.4 10-1
10 10 Spuns Son 20.00 6 11-1
8 8 Small Sailor 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 One Last Hand 12.00 1 2-1
8 8 Cove Blue 2.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Crosstown Shootout 10.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 On a Spree 3.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Gormleys Got Game 10.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 Picasso 3.50 6.7 13-1
2 2 Malibu Time 4.50 8 15-1
3 3 Keen On You 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Uncaptured Dream 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Scotch No Rocks 10.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 Chowmein 12.00 2.4 5-1
10 10 Midway Miracle 15.00 2.9 6-1
9 9 Spinstrawinto Gold 15.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Secret Pocket 4.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Secret Edge 20.00 6 11-1
7 7 Stayinyourlane 4.50 6.4 12-1
4 4 Nara 3.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Lucky Smile 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Nordic Light 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Right of Rush 5.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Ronithelimodriver 12.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Writeitontheice 5.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Levy 3.50 4.5 8-1
4 4 Sprinklehead 4.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Money Pit 6.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Sidekick 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Ludwig 10.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Zed 10.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Shady Daredevil 4.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Timetomakemischief 4.50 5.6 11-1
9 9 Testimony Time 20.00 6.3 12-1
4 4 Mapper 3.00 6.9 13-1
3 3 Saturday Long Legs 20.00 7.5 14-1
8 8 Flying Houdini 20.00 8.3 16-1
10 10 Stirdatpot 15.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Maasai Warrior 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Chasing the Crown 1.40 1.7 3-1
4 4 Go Bali Go 10.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Nicholas Jones 15.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Modern Science (IRE) 4.50 3.4 6-1
5 5 Unleash the Power 8.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Minister for Magic 12.00 7.1 13-1
8 8 The Prince’s Spur 2.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Giant Game 1.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Redeemer 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Abbreviation 10.00 1 2-1
5 5 Raggity Sand 3.00 1.4 3-1
7 7 Corsini 2.50 1.8 3-1
3 3 Peak Popularity 1.60 3.2 6-1
2 2 Medaglia Forever 8.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 She’s Magic 12.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Angora Deb 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Frozen Solid 10.00 1 2-1
3 3 Quick Munny 8.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Nota Bene 2.50 3.5 7-1
8 8 Madrilena (ARG) 6.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Awesome Lawson 30.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Mirth ‘n Merriment 12.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Atlantic Strike 6.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Parents Pride 2.00 6.5 12-1
6 6 Awesome Treat 10.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Mercy Warren 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Roxelana Overnight S.) – Roxelana Overnight S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Frank’s Rockette 0.60 1 2-1
6 6 Coppelia 3.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Praise and Honor 20.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Pretty Birdie 3.50 2.9 5-1
2 2 Last Leaf 20.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 My Destiny 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Neighbor 4.50 1 2-1
4 4 Cambiaso 15.00 1.3 3-1
13 13 Succeed 3.50 1.4 3-1
10 10 Cronus 6.00 1.4 3-1
8 8 Kansas Comet 3.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 Plenty of Time 10.00 3 6-1
9 9 Booster Shot 8.00 3.6 7-1
11 11 Yes Point 15.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Tiz Twenty Twenty 3.50 4 8-1
12 12 T Law 20.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Desert Highway 20.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Navy Cross 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Code of Kings 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Schmear 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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