September 22, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Best Seller | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Free Spirited | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Goodbetterbest | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tattered Heart | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Miss Addie Lynn | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lucky Phoenix | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Top Mule | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Unleash the Spirit | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Duplantis | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Home School | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Led Tasso | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Housed | 3.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Driven by Pressure | 5.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Connect Me | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Midnight Dreaming | 8.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cambiaso | 12.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Affamato | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Crack the Moon | 15.00 | 11.4 | 21-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ghoststryder | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Airtime | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Rocking Rocket | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Grace’s Secret | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Je Suis Rapide | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ballykeen | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Beach Kitten | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Solar Reign | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sum More Bizzness | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mayan | 0 | 0-1 | |||
| 2 | 2 | Appeal Denied | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mount Kisco | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | It’s a Bang Bang | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Island Mischief | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mayan | 3.50 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Arrogates Spirit | 6.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 7 | 7 | War Room | 6.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Iceatude | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Mo’s Treasure | 12.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Team Leader | 3.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Endpoint | 5.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Ghost Nation | 6.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Single Ruler | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Joking Way | 5.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Leola | 12.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Koops | 12.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
| 1 | 6 | Rio Moon | 12.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | King Russell | 20.00 | 12.2 | 23-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Wild Sean | 15.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sippican Shop | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 14 | Code One | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Highway Robber | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Kunshan Bridge | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lansdowne | 6.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Steinbeck | 12.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Writeitontheice | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Civics Class | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Carbonite | 3.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Oro de Moro Moro | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Button Boy | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Page One | 0 | 0-1 | ||||
| 7 | 7 | Schmoozin | 15.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Run Classic | 8.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Let My People Go | 15.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Improbable Journey | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Go Emi | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Marching | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Marsalis | 3.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Embrace | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Badgeball | 4.50 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Spartan Army | 8.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Flint Ridge | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Page One | 8.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Malibu Mike | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | You Vee Cee | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Seal Beach | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Trashtalkinyankee | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Closed Caption | 0 | 0-1 | ||||
| 10 | 10 | Eyes of Gold | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Nursekringledances | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Margoinabubblebath | 6.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cloudy Bay | 5.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Closed Caption | 5.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Stage Bell | 15.00 | 13.1 | 25-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Lady Brett Ashley | 30.00 | 13.2 | 25-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Oath of Allegiance | 15.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Connelmaura | 12.00 | 13.4 | 25-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mor Happy Hours | 20.00 | 13.8 | 26-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Dreaming Always | 30.00 | 14.5 | 27-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Happysecret | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Tribal Spirit | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Pioneer Parade | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Frostalicious | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Ladan | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.