September 17, 2022 Belmont At The Big A Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Souffle | 1.80 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Midtown Lights | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Showemyourheels | 3.50 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hypnocurrency | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bank Holiday | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | A Royal Shin | 6.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Red Butterfly | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | In Good Trouble | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Fleetfooted | 8.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Red Hot Chick | 12.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Fancypants Juliana | 4.50 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Moonage Daydream | 5.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
| 15 | 15 | Happy Warrior | 6.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Slow Down Summer | 10.00 | 11.4 | 22-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Army of Thoughts | 30.00 | 14.8 | 28-1 |
| 16 | 16 | August Bloom | 12.00 | 16 | 30-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Jemography | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Alcools | 1.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bronx Bomber | 1.80 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Long Term Thinking | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Reux (GB) | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Musical America | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Indemnify (FR) | 1.40 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Labarde | 20.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Triumphant Road | 12.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Logan’s Runner | 20.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bobbie D (IRE) | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Aruba | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Jurkovec | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bali Riddim | 30.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Steady On | 12.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Mistical Curlin | 3.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Siege of Boston | 5.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Its All Relevant | 1.40 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Kumar | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lil Commissioner | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dark Storm | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | First Deputy | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Magnetron | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | O Shea Can U See | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Devious Mo | 30.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| Dark Storm | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Umbria | 1.80 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Once a Giant | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Amedeus Music | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Scotto | 30.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lucky Brody | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Flipping Fun | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | B C Glory Days | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Alite | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Prince of Joy | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Padma | 1.80 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Binsky | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bulsara | 8.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Spun Special | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bella Michelle | 15.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Occult | 3.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Candy Strike | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Royal Poppy | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| Padma | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Jockey Club Oaks Invitational S.) – Jockey Club Oaks Invitational S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | McKulick (GB) | 0.80 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Nostalgic | 12.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Beside Herself | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Miss Yearwood | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Toskana Belle (FR) | 3.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Canisy | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Phantom Smoke | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Carpe’s Dream | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Immortalization | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | King Angelo | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Klickitat | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Outlaw Kid | 6.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ikigai | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Gianni Lambo | 8.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Maritime Wings (IRE) | 10.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 5 | Prisoner | 12.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 6 | Nabokov | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ryan’s Cat | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 4 | Dot’s Dollar | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 1A | 3 | American Gentleman | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 7 | Capone | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 8 | Expressman | 0.40 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mackillop | 6.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Caesars Jockey Club Derby Invitational S.) – Caesars Jockey Club Derby Invitational S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Classic Causeway | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Wicked Fast | 15.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Nations Pride (IRE) | 1.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Daunt | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | The Grey Wizard (IRE) | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ardakan (GB) | 4.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Royal Currency | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Shinfull | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Voleuse | 1.20 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Royal Dancer | 1.40 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Aleste | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | True Martini | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lita | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lemon Red | 8.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Ard Macha | 8.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Maddie’s Surprise | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.