September 15, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Blunder | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Ashwins Orb | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Thach | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Predominate | 3.50 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hornbeam | 4.50 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Atomic Tone | 5.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Big Pete | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | A C’s Analyzer | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Hey Boss | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Old Chester | 30.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Jackys Back | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Star Entertainer | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Guana Cay | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tap Dancing Lady | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Le Da Vida (CHI) | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Smarmy | 4.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Powder River | 2.50 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Temper Time | 3.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Compelling Smile | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | One for Richie | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Big Sport | 4.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Totalizer | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Thirsty Betrayal | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Eagle Pass | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tetsu | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Crime Spree | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Honorary Degree | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | All West | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Can Imagine | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Spend Benjamins | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Insolito | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pine Valley | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Constitutional Law | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Norgay | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Vintage Vinyl | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | California Express | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Supremely | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Scratchoff | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Final Approach | 12.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Lucky Smile | 3.50 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cobblestone | 10.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cougar Jack | 20.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cloud Without Rein | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Hallow Point | 12.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Rungius | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Track Mate | 2.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Summonyourcourage | 2.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Frank’s Honor | 10.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | California Twirl | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Hard to Come By | 12.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Bluff City | 15.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Traffic Master | 15.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Princely | 12.00 | 13.8 | 26-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Tiz Twenty Twenty | 15.00 | 14 | 26-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Mr Midway | 20.00 | 14.4 | 27-1 | |
| 1 | 15 | Wadsworth | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 13 | Welaka | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 16 | Face Value | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 14 | Kicksandgiggles | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | Crackalacking | 15.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Holiday Decision | 10.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Pachuca | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | T Max | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Free Drop Maddy | 4.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Santa Fe Gold | 10.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mornin’ Boss | 15.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | B G Warrior | 20.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Happy Clouds | 20.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Karma Ghia | 30.00 | 11.9 | 22-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Shoplifter | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Boss Lady Bailey | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 13 | Need Some Money | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Heart Rhythm | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gun It | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Surveillance | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Torontotoro | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Here Mi Song | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Ready to Pounce | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hidden Scroll | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Major Fed | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Night Time | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Robo Man | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Supertaleofhoudini | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cycologist | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Eclipsed | 10.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Forgot Password | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sweet Ginger | 20.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Jersey Gold | 30.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pontiffany | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Pappysaysyes | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Inspeightful | 5.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Total Discretion | 20.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ipsum Gratus | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.