September 1, 2022 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Michael G. Walsh Novice S.) – Michael G. Walsh Novice S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Decisive Triumph | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Scorpion’s Revenge (IRE) | 3.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lydford (GB) | 10.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Freddy Flintshire | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Theocrat (IRE) | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Fast Vision (FR) | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Perfect Tapatino (FR) | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Who’s Counting | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Ragtime Blues | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bronx Bomber | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Casalsa | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | In Sky We Trust | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Long Term Thinking | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lost in Rome | 6.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Musical America | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Influentialous | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sirius Light | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Run for Cover | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Numero Seis | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Extessa | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mrs. Cash Man | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sly Sloane | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ocean Honey | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Bourbon and Honey | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Value Engineering | 1.80 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bye Bye Melvin | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Flop Shot (IRE) | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Street Ready | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Glynn County | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | It’s a Gamble | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Claytnthelionheart | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Gentleman Joe | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | W W Fitzy | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sweet Willemina | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bees and Honey | 1.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lucky Peridot | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Family Time | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Like a Pro | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Inflation Nation (IRE) | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Clubhouse | 10.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Sustenance | 10.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Balsa | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Listentothemusic | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Antares | 3.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bolt Above | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mo Saturdays | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gucci Boy | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Texas Pride | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sippican Shop | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Surprise Payoff | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Keep Left | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Tsuris | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Bernardo’s Legacy | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 11 | Classic Lynne | 8.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Bella Conchita | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Dream of Change (IRE) | 2.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Command Point | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Maybe Later | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Rosemary Potatoes | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Masabeeh | 6.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Our Jessica | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | I’m Buzzy | 10.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Tapple Cider | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 4 | Shaolin | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 12 | Monshun | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 13 | Dazzy | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Short Summer Dress | 0.80 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Melting Snow | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rossa Veloce | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Invaluable | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | She’s a Black Belt | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Hydra | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | It Can | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Cowichan (IRE) | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Illicit | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tell Me When | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Georgees Spirit | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ticker Tape Home | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gustiamo | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Up and Down | 8.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | More Than a Diva | 8.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Stars On Fire (IRE) | 5.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sweetlou’sgotaces | 15.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Check Engine Light | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Binsky | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (P. G. Johnson S.) – P. G. Johnson S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Lady Jasmine | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Be Your Best (IRE) | 1.40 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Damaso | 15.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Recognize | 8.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Whichwaze | 10.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pachuca | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Indian Spideroo | 20.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Idea Generation (IRE) | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Leave No Trace | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Once a Giant | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Scotto | 20.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Be the Boss | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Got the Gold | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | B C Glory Days | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Lucky Brody | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Midaswellrun | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lord Brownie | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Stud Puppy | 30.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Power Agenda | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.