August 18, 2022 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Sensibleconclusion | 1.40 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Uncle Water Flow | 2.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lucky Mucho Man | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Reunion Tour | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Uncle Bruce | 15.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Olympic Dreams | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Caragate | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | A Bit o’Irish Sass | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ok Honey | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Epona’s Dream | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ifihadachance | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bustin Bay | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Get the Candy | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 7 | Jill’s a Hot Mess | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1A | 5 | Sassy Melissa | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 6 | Fontanafredda | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dancingwthdaffodls | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Itsakeyper | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shesawildjoker | 2.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | Beautiful Karen | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Handicap) – Starter Handicap
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Mexican Wonder Boy | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Alcools | 4.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Stage Left | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Flamingo Hawk | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Rejected Again | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Absentee | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Long Term Thinking | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Clear the Deck | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Forbidden Secret | 4.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Childers | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Uncle Dan | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tsuris | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Raka Raka Cruz | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hey Eugene | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Dream On Cara | 8.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bernt Again | 10.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Recognize | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Orange Freeze | 2.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Berning Honor | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sarah’s Dialed In | 6.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | April First | 6.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Luna Loca | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Charles Chrome | 1.40 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Immortalization | 2.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Veterans Beach | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Boom Boom Kaboom | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Steelersfanforlife | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Loaded Joe | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Truebelieve | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Cathedral Beach | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Leddy | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Complete Agenda | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Perceived | 4.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Nabokov | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Warrior Johny | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Winit | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Vasariano | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Unbridled Bomber | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (New York Stallion Series S.) – New York Stallion Series S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Howdyoumakeurmoney | 8.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Robyn and Eli | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Royal Dancer | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Busy Morning | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dream Central | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Tara Dancer | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Golden Rocket | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Eros’s Girl | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Lookin Grand | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Loz | 3.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Rush to Honor | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Uragano | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Toga Dancer | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ableton | 10.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Phoebe’s Frosty | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sell Something | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Marie’s Tuff Son | 50.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Cash Bail | 50.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.