August 4, 2022 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Girl Afraid | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sicilian Grandma | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ocean Honey | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Acqua Bella | 2.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Maggie T | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lady Quinn | 4.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Benevolently | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Cowichan (IRE) | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Gormleyesque | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Private Credit | 3.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Alluring Angel (GB) | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gustiamo | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Illicit | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Factor That | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pallotta Sisters | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Tattered Heart | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Maria From Miami | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Strut | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Personal Pursuit | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Isabel Alexandra (IRE) | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Played Hard | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Boston Post Road | 1.80 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | W W Fitzy | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Millefeuille | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Flashndynamite | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Family Time | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Alpine Queen | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Voice of Spring | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tactical Range | 12.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Raffinity | 5.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Stormi Cat Lady | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | My Sweet Wife | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Exfiltration | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Vallarand | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | One More Baby | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mistical Curlin | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Nordic Light | 4.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sensible Jim | 3.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Necco | 8.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Question My Sanity | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lefty’s War | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 7 | 7 | River of No Return | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | New York Panther | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Fire King | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Provision | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Who Me | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Secretary of War | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | El Quemado | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lachaise | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Uncle Marty | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Twirling Charlie | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Jackson Heights | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Captain Party | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Master Sergeant | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Bye Bye | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Athwaaq | 15.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Alwayz Late | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Spicy Marg | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mail Order | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Hit the Woah | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Secret Time (GER) | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mon Petit Chou | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Short Summer Dress | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Betsy Blue | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Everyoneloveslinda | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Alydar S.) – Alydar S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Art Collector | 1.40 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mystic Night | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bal Harbour | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Masqueparade | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Chess Chief | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | King Fury | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Buy Land and See | 8.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Big Everest (GB) | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1A | 6 | Whisper Not (GB) | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Floriform | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 10 | Atone | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Bye Bye Melvin | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Clear Vision | 30.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Forty Under | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 4 | Emaraaty (GB) | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2B | 11 | Maxwell Esquire | 2.50 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 12 | Burning Bright | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Good Governance (GB) | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | Stuck On Kitten | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Freedomofthepress | 4.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | O’Gotten Girl | 8.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Fast Corey | 10.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Missing Link | 30.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | R Reposado Loca | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Mandy Green | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 10 | Meraviglioso | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1A | 9 | Mispelled Mooon | 3.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Miss Domina | 2.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 11 | Scott Alaia | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.