July 30, 2022 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Team Leader | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Swiss Guard | 2.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Capture the Flag | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Space | 10.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tatum | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bourbon Resolve | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Determinedly | 8.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Rarified Flair | 10.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | America’s Guest | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Montepulciano | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | American Hustle | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | C’Est Magnifique | 3.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Son of a Birch | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Deccan Prince (IRE) | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Our Dream Rye’d | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Good Rapport | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Endowed | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Southern Passage | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Full Moon Fever | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bold Victory | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cryo | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Royal Tryst | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Wolfe County | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kissalot | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Misbehaved | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Devilly | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Queen de La Creme | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Diamant Damhsa (IRE) | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Trevise | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Creemore | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Union Dolly | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Hope Over Fear | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Sparkling Water | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Our Souper Love | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Jabberwock | 10.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lady Firefoot | 12.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Doozy Batz | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Bank On Shea | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Flying Emperor | 10.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Big Engine | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Big Bobby | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Masked Marauder | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Amundson | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hot Rod Rumble | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bronx Bomber | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Quickflash | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Lady’s Golden Guy | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Marvelous Maude | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Finest Work | 6.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Wicked Groove | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Linny Kate | 30.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Missy Greer | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lady Emily | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Ensemble (IRE) | 3.50 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Blissful | 4.50 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Malibu Curl | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Big City Momma | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Minute Waltz | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 13 | Baby Man | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Dream of Change (IRE) | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Feathers Road | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Heymackit’sjack | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Built to Last | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Central Pride | 15.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Fuoco | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mister Chairman | 4.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Buckortwo | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Ripe for Mischief | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Kimbo Dancer | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Heroneandonly | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Tommy Gun | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Gimmebackmybullets | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Impazible Prince | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Alfred G. Vanderbilt H.) – Alfred G. Vanderbilt H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Jackie’s Warrior | 0.20 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Kneedeepinsnow | 12.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ny Traffic | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Willy Boi | 8.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Doc Amster | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Long Range Toddy | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Jim Dandy S.) – Jim Dandy S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Zandon | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Epicenter | 1.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Early Voting | 1.60 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tawny Port | 8.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Western River | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Orchestration | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Airman | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Irwin (IRE) | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 10 | Bay Street Money | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Ricochet | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Colosseo | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Exult | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Hidden Enemy (IRE) | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | C Falls | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Shawdyshawdyshawdy | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Capensis | 2.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Therisastormbrewin | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 16 | Hometown | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Three Jokers | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Capone | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Warrior Johny | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Big Agenda | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Healing | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | The Last Zip | 5.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Jack the Cat | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mo Ready | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Hieroglyphics | 30.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bad Guy | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Barleewon | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Troubling Moon | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mad Munnys | 15.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Ballagh Rocks | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Outrageous Bet | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | American Lincoln | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Artemus Bridge | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Quiet Out East | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Monarchs Glen (GB) | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.