July 28, 2022 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Aunt Naughty | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Inventing | 1.80 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Amenset | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Forever After All | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | She’s Keen | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cinq Souers | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Snowy Evening | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Souffle | 2.50 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Slow Down Summer | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Moonage Daydream | 6.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Fancypants Juliana | 10.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fleetfooted | 8.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Showemyourheels | 6.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bad Samaritan | 12.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Little Linzee | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Frankie C | 30.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Flutie Flakes | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Maggie | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Amanda’s Folly | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Lady Jasmine | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Spinning Colors | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Quick Return | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Saratoga Pal | 4.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sicilia Mike | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Auburn Hills | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Somebody | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lost in Rome | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | First Deputy | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Boldish | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Ocean’s Reserve | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sinful Dancer | 5.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Two for Charging | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Curlin’s Wisdom | 6.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Devil Boy | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Compromiser | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Full Complement | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Capleton | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Birdstone S.) – Birdstone S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Lone Rock | 1.20 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Fearless | 0.80 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Shooger Ray Too | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Portos | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Original Intent | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Investment Income | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Birthday Time | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cold Call | 10.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Public Service | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pegs A. K. Girl | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Dancing Sophia | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Any Port | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Belleshazza | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ricelle | 30.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Roundabout | 20.00 | 12.2 | 23-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Tekila | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | She’s a Natural | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Regina | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Barrett | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Afilada | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Brisky Frolic | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Boston Tea Party | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Evan Sing | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ring of Fire | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bustin Shout | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Thin White Duke | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Immortalization | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Biz Biz Buzz | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Legends Can’t Die | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Mr. Pete | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Risk Profile | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Malibu S S | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Price Discipline | 0.80 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 7 | Dangerous Edge | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Son of an Ex | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Thrill of It | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Great Workout | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 10 | Bossmakinbossmoves | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Forty Two Ace | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Mr Breadwinner | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 9 | Rhymes Like Dimes | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 1A | 8 | Full Moon Fever | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Cold Hard Cash | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Tide of the Sea | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Offlee Naughty | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 10 | Parsimony | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Ajourneytofreedom | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1A | 12 | Pioneer Spirit | 3.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Roderick | 2.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Mud Pie | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Reigning Spirit | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | McLovin | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 9 | Wicked Fast | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Balthus (IRE) | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Cousin Andrew | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Deregulation (GB) | 8.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ginnsu Warrior | 4.50 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Storm Shooter | 2.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Frozen Funds | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lord Gatling | 10.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Courageoous Oh La | 15.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Nature Boy | 20.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hudson Overpass | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Uncle George | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Fomo | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Zealin It | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Hezastonecoldfox | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | He’s Got It | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Sandrone | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Cool Laoban | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.