July 16, 2022 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | North Pole | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Never Change | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fiery Heart | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Readyseekgo | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mistical Curlin | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Knot the One | 4.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Psychic Income | 5.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Chloe Rose | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | New York Banker | 6.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Closing Deals | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Thief of Hearts | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Quick Munny | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cupids Girl | 5.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tea Olive | 4.50 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Whatlovelookslike | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Saratoga Chrome | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Wicked Lady | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Robyn and Eli | 2.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Cerretta | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cape Cod Causeway | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Arisaema | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Sals Dream Girl | 6.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Succulent | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tara Dancer | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Jocosity | 10.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sarah’s Splendor | 15.00 | 10.3 | 20-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Can’t Fool Me | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Higher Quality | 1.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | It’s Gravy | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Cryo | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | B C Glory Days | 15.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Red Revolution | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Scotto | 30.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Eagle in Love | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Karl Cares | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Mr. Kringle | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Rally Squirrel | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 3 | Simply | 15.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Spettro | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Barrel of Quests | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Little Maddy Brown | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Front Line Dancer | 4.50 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Shutters | 5.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Citizen K | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Marinara Sauced | 4.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cut the Cord | 15.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 1A | 14 | Dangerous Edge | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Great Workout | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Bossmakinbossmoves | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Flamingo Hawk | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Double Shot | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Alcools | 2.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Long Term Thinking | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | In Sky We Trust | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Musical America | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Chris and Dave | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mr. Pete | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Baby Yoda | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Reinvestment Risk | 0.60 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Answer In | 12.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | River Dog | 20.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Disco Pharoah | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Nova Rags | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sibelius | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Zoomer | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Fitzpatrick | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Diana S.) – Diana S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Bleecker Street | 1.20 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Technical Analysis (IRE) | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Creative Flair (IRE) | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rougir (FR) | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | In Italian (GB) | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dalika (GER) | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 1 | Forever Souper | 8.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Credit Event | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Summer Anthem | 10.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 10 | Royal Spirit | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 5 | Setna the Wise | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Daunt | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Parquetry | 30.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Analogy | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Constitutionlawyer | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 1A | 11 | Dripping Gold | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Fort Ticonderoga | 2.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 2B | 13 | Mo Rewards | 6.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | |
| 11 | 12 | Wolfe County | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 14 | Naval Aviator | 1.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Sanford S.) – Sanford S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Roman Giant | 20.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Andiamo a Firenze | 3.50 | 1.9 | 3-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Valenzan Day | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mo Strike | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Curly Jack | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Forte | 2.50 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 8 | 8 | I’m Wide Awake | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Prove Right | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Boppy O | 15.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Major Dude | 10.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Great Navigator | 12.00 | 11.4 | 22-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Puttheblameonme | 30.00 | 12 | 23-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Diva Ready | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Raining Candy | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bella Conchita | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Noble Enterprise | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Kemba | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Freedom Machine | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Lookin to Fly | 8.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Princess Blakely | 4.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lemon Taffy | 50.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Synonymous | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Clara Belle | 15.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Constitutionalrage | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | English Charmer | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Maybe Later | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Hatari | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Alicia’s Way | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.