July 3, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Nineties Country | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Thunderheart | 4.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mulberry Street | 6.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hometown Hero | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Oncoming Train | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mr. Halftime | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Big Boss Ben | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Solid Tune | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Azamana Empire | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Gin N Sin | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | One Full Moon | 15.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lantern’s Candy | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Frosted Diamond | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Sweet Truffles | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lamasco | 20.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Divine Hope | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dingle Harbor | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Anchorage Overnight S.) – Anchorage Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Li’l Tootsie | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | The Mary Rose | 1.80 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Will’s Secret | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sylvia Q | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Roc’s Princess | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Sweet Beauty | 1.40 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Purrfect Mistress | 1.80 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Olivia’s Joy | 10.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tizmissbetty | 20.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Nogratz | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Maya’s Wish | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Klimt’s Muse | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bel Aria | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | The Judge and Jury | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Young Turk | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Big Redwhiteblue | 10.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Versatile | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Futuro | 15.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Bar On the Beach | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Bright Spark | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Uncle Nick | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | When in Rome | 6.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Double Dealer | 12.00 | 12.6 | 24-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Mad Magic | 15.00 | 13.5 | 25-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Houdini’s Awesome | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Title Shot | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Missouri Gent | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Alpha Whiskey | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Offutt Cole | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Mount Kenya | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Red Knobs | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Isthmian | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Soros | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Malibu Time | 12.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Notable Exception | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | West Warpath | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Yearn for Victory | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Commander Compton | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Fort Defiance | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Designed by Kitten | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sparkle of Hope | 12.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ring Me Darling | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | My My Munny | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Legerity | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bizzy Echo | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sweet Confusion | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | On the Rise | 3.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Shell Shock | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shaniah | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | A Paycheque Smile | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maxfield Overnight S.) – Maxfield Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | My Prankster | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Gunite | 1.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tejano Twist | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hoist the Gold | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Burninhunkoflove | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Overtaxed | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Bank | 12.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Strongconstitution | 5.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Coltonator | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bourbon Calling | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Devil’s Tower | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Much Better | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Ready to Pounce | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Verb | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Kadri | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | A C Expressway | 4.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Emerald Express | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Seal Beach | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Anarchist | 10.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Edge of Glory | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Drink the Wind | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | American Mayhem | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cyclone | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Stand for Freedom | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Raisedaroofcharlie | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bold Looker | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Thach | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Film Star | 6.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Mount Kisco | 30.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Malibu Mike | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Supremely | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.