July 2, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Mo’s Treasure | 10.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Cigarette Boat | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Boxster | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Hill of Tara | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Zaici | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Rarified Flair | 15.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ironsides | 15.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hallow Point | 4.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Syntactic | 10.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Saburo’s Grace | 12.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Mr Bingo | 8.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Necker Island | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Long Range Toddy | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Jalen Journey | 8.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Manny Wah | 10.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Hollis | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Long Weekend | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Robo Man | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Special Reserve | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Macho Villa | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Easy Big Boy | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Nak Nak Bolt | 12.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Capacity | 20.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Overly d’Oro | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Confidence Game | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mayfield Strong | 12.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Frosted Departure | 4.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Blocked | 12.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | He’s a Good Dancer | 12.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Damon’s Mound | 4.50 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mabuhay | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | American Pyramid | 12.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | My Lily Mae | 4.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Savo Island | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Blamethechampagne | 15.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Gunning | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dreamalot | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lil Town Sis | 30.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Tubman | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Please Be Kind | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Romance Novel | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Explicate | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Amaryllis Kiss | 8.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Take Care | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Bal a Bae Bee | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Divine Hope | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Rolleston | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Swing Shift | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Patient Capital | 8.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Prayforpeace | 15.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Spankster | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Texas Red Hot | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Unified Report | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mendenhall | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Let My People Go | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hippodrome | 5.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Atta Boy Anthony | 50.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sacred Samurai | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Tepin S.) – Tepin S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Heartyconstitution | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Wicked Halo | 1.80 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Verylittlecents | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Zawish | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Patna | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Sandstone | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Runaway Wife | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (American Derby) – American Derby
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Kuchar | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Kitodan | 12.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Rattle N Roll | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | McLaren Vale | 4.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | O P Firecracker | 10.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Red Run | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Search Engine | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Jr’s Gift | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | War Campaign | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Fowler Blue | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Double Clutch | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Fleur De Lis S.) – Fleur De Lis S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Shedaresthedevil | 1.80 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Pauline’s Pearl | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | She’s All Wolfe | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ava’s Grace | 6.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Super Quick | 2.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Kelly’s Landing Overnight S.) – Kelly’s Landing Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Aloha West | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bango | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bob’s Edge | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Miles Ahead | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kneedeepinsnow | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Heart Rhythm | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Startdfromdabottom | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | A C Expressway | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Awesome Gerry | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stephen Foster S.) – Stephen Foster S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Mandaloun | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Olympiad | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Americanrevolution | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Proxy | 4.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Last Samurai | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Caddo River | 10.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Title Ready | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Regal Retort | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lindalevesolta (ARG) | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Altered Shot | 4.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Recoded | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Honorifique | 4.50 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sterling Miss | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Amusing Antics | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Be Like Water | 10.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 |
| 3 | 3 | She’s a Dime | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Malloy | 20.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Millefeuille | 3.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Mr. Tip | 12.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Southern Passage | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Curbstone | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bourbon Thunder | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Tallahatchiebridge | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | C Falls | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Alejandro | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Greatheart | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Tiz Rye Time | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Rogue Element | 20.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Full Charge | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Keepcalmcarryon | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.