June 30, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Beverly’s Charge | 1.80 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Field Daisey | 12.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lady Protonico | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Moon Over Tuscany | 8.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Her Giant | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Catchusifyoucan | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ain’t She a Pistol | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 6 | River Echo (GB) | 1.80 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Pepper Pike | 10.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | Higher Authority | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Cabertoss | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | To Kalon | 15.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 5 | Money for Mischief | 1.80 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Jingle | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 7 | Sin City Slick | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Colonelsdarktemper | 1.20 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Claytnthelionheart | 6.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Peekacho | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | The Stiff | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Good Juju | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | What a Country | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Sono Grato | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Pledgeofallegiance | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | American Hero | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tiwanaku | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ready Pursuit | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Seven Flat | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Happy Romance | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Roman Giant | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Three Zero | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | El Cerrito | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Hard to Come By | 5.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Cajun Blast | 10.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Scott City | 8.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Deer District | 10.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Stormin Army | 12.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Determinedly | 6.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Ship and Scam | 8.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Played Hard | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Powder River | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Semble Juste (IRE) | 10.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | All Luck | 4.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tap for Me | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Miss Tulsa | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Pats Property | 15.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Unpredictable Bay | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Elite Power | 1.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Jelly Nougat | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dreaming of Gerry | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Uber Kirk | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Zippin Gigi | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lansdowne | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Roughin the City | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Miss Everything | 10.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Spare Cash | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hedy Lamarr | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Silverleaf | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tiffany’s Mo | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | What’s to Do | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sacred Kitten | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | My Sweetness | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lamasco | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.