June 24, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Try SFTB Plus for Free
$10 a Month Gets You Horse Racing Advanced Stats including an optimizer for each race.
Sign up now and get 7 days free of charge!
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Curlin Lane | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Command Central | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Fotheringay | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Super Brother | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Stavanger | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Consider | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Mejthaam | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Chopin Drive | 2.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lady Mercedes | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Moudari | 8.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Matle Valley | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Awesome Ally Vee | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | One Full Moon | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Earley Rose | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ipsum Gratus | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Memphis Cash Queen | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Beach Kitten | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | World of Wonder | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Scenic View | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Backyard Hen | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Met in Miami | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Designer Ready | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | High Fashion | 2.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Good Measure | 1.80 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Three Tipsy Chix | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Malibu Marlee | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Larimar | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Well Spent | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Off We Go | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cherished | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hypernova | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Girls a Bullet | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tuckyourtaleandrun | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Knowing Glance | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | One Way Or Another | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Four Dawn | 8.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Shared Future | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Zmuda | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sweet Annabella | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | I Cross My Heart | 4.50 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Risata | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Pioneering Spirit | 1.40 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Speed Bias | 1.60 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Scotland Yard | 4.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tim Tal | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bourbon On Fire | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Wolfe County | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Aquacat | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Amani’s Eagle | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Thrive | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1A | 9 | Vasariano | 5.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Picasso | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Eli | 20.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Protonic Power | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Isthmian | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Soros | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Mahomey | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Hornbeam | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Tricolour | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Chrome’s Right | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cabana Time | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Winter’s Ghost | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Honorable Vow | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Arrow Strike | 5.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Officer Nick | 4.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mountain Ghost | 15.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dudley | 30.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bright Spark | 15.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.