June 22, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 6 | Nana’s Gray | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Murgatroyd | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mohaylady | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | La Tourista | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1A | 5 | Hashtag Winner | 2.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Red Queen | 2.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Anaheim | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Oiler | 1.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Loco | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Versatile | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bandimere | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Rerally | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mr Ghost | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Declare the Moon | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bad Decisions | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Port Royal | 6.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Twirling Blues | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Midnight Raid | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Blue Bonzai | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Buckeye Jimmy | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Stellar Tap | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Buckingham Prince | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Red Label | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Doctor Love | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Baby Quinn | 3.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Fireman Dan | 4.50 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Carillo | 1.40 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Groom Lake | 10.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | American Smooth | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Loving Lucky | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | El Franco | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Plemmonston | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Guard | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Twist of Faith | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Baytown Get It On | 4.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Kbcya Later | 1.60 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ready Rumor | 12.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Spiritist | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Steele Money | 15.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Giant Awakening | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Saburo’s Grace | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Purrfect Mistress | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Sonador | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Outlaw Queen | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Verdandi | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Villareggia | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bel Aria | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Jamaican Traffic | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Maggie’s Will | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Ournationonparade | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lost in Limbo | 5.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Digital | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Impressed | 10.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Quick Return | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rob the Rich | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Samurai Prince | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Divine Leader | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Devil’s Tower | 10.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Wild Behavior | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Don’t Forget | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Flamingo Hawk | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | The Queens Jules | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Rolling Fork | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | David’s Gem | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hooperdrivesthboat | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.