June 16, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Try SFTB Plus for Free
$10 a Month Gets You Horse Racing Advanced Stats including an optimizer for each race.
Sign up now and get 7 days free of charge!
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Outlaw Queen | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Villareggia | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sonador | 3.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Jamaican Traffic | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Verdandi | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Maggie’s Will | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bel Aria | 4.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Jeremy’s Jet | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Western Ghent | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Nak Nak Bolt | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sivako | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Eakly | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Two Phil’s | 4.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | How Did He Do That | 5.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Peekacho | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | River Echo (GB) | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Unidentified Man | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Jurisdiction | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bear Alley | 0.80 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Majors Vindication | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Mo Strike | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Disarm | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hezmorethanready | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Hill of Tara | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mo Moves | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Summonyourcourage | 4.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Anglophile | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Our Dream Rye’d | 15.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Eli’s Promise | 10.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Let Him Do | 10.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | Supertaleofhoudini | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Latte Dolce | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 4 | Super Wonder Girl | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 5 | Eclipsed | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 6 | Bertrada | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 2 | T. K.’s Joker | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1A | 8 | Ain’t She a Pistol | 4.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 3 | Mizbehaving Sis | 5.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Best Bet | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Jedrek | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Edge of Glory | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Blunder | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mr Boldacious | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fast Felix | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Acehigh Royal | 10.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Unleash the Power | 12.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Taffin | 10.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
| 5 | 5 | One America | 12.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Gulfstream Way | 1.80 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Flags Up | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dark Timber | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Swift Tap | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Spend Benjamins | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bernie Lomax | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Keen Heir | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Take a Stand | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Silverleaf | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Fever Dreaming | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Aaliyah Ezri | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sunny River | 2.50 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Scent of Royalty | 6.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cocoa Colada | 10.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Dontgetabovuraisin | 15.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Neck On the Nile | 20.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 |
| 10 | 10 | What’s to Do | 8.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.