June 12, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Grace’s Secret | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Coco Puff | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Stupendous | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Layla’s Song | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Wildcat Dream | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sure Wasn’t Me | 3.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Think Twice | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Leslie’s Lady Overnight S.) – Leslie’s Lady Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Wicked Halo | 1.80 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Pretty Birdie | 0.80 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sweet as Pie | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Runnin Happy | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Baby Blue Eyes | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Blame George | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Endless Sunset | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | Notable Exception | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Money Mike | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Carnivore | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rocket Hotshot | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Even Money | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 1A | 7 | Soros | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Downtown Abby | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Altered Shot | 2.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Designed by Kitten | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | The Club | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Little Mombo | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Honor That | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mun Luv | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Lady Danae | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Miner’s Queen | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | J L’s Rockette | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Margie’s Kitchen | 10.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Nota Bene | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Rosy Dawn | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Take the Backroads | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Boxing Day | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | My Bets | 15.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | The Mary Rose | 1.80 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Will’s Secret | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Misty Veil | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | W W Fitzy | 4.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lil Kings Princess | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Plausible Denile | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Spankster | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Seal Beach | 3.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | California Express | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Thach | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sea Force | 5.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Drink the Wind | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Tebow | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Guaranteed Speck | 30.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Double Spun | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Stirdatpot | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Escape Route | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bagboss | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Fore Left | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Edgemont Road | 30.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Verb | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Therideofalifetime | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Coltonator | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Flamingo Hawk | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Much Better | 4.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | With Verve | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tequilas Ranger | 50.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Violent City | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Beverly Park | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Matt Winn S.) – Matt Winn S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Cyberknife | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Tough to Tame | 12.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Rattle N Roll | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Howling Time | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Trafalgar | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Droppin G’s | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Camp David | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Zippin Gigi | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Royal Spirit | 2.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 6 | St Andrews | 10.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Iberville | 10.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Happy Boy Rocket | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Ignitis | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1A | 16 | Barossa | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Britain’s Kitten | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Lucky Boss | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Jr’s Gift | 15.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Best Actor | 2.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Fort Defiance | 20.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Portfolio Company | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Gold Heritage | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Leslie Chow | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Double Clutch | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.