June 10, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Oaxaca | 1.80 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pontiffany | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Tachlis | 1.20 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Days Remembered | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Contessina | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Awesome Ally Vee | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | American Hero | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gingrich | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Stockpiler | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Malibu Time | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Brit’s Wit | 2.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ready Pursuit | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Maximum Impact | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Doctor Love | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Buckingham Prince | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Holiday Decision | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rum Runner Ready | 5.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Empire of My Own | 4.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Naughty Gal | 10.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Loyal to a Fault | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Free Drop Maddy | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Personal Pursuit | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Fast N Happy | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Medicine Tail | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Island Boy | 6.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Vasariano | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | What a Country | 3.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Amani’s Eagle | 3.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tillis | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | West Love | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sweet Truffles | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lantern’s Candy | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cami Cat | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Frosted Diamond | 4.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Yo Puedo | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Darene | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Mataro | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Macho Villa | 8.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Gulfport | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Duplantis | 4.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Reiquist | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Capacity | 15.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Coach Rogers | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Zafiro Anejo | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Easy Big Boy | 5.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Drena’s Star | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Espionage | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Trappe Valley | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Firery Tale | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Seau | 4.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Hidden Promise | 5.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Subdued | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rye Humor | 5.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mason A. P. | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Sister Annie | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Strollin the Bayou | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Sariah Sariah | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tiltingatwindmills | 4.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Gianna’s Gift | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kimberley Dream | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dance Rhythms | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Hat Tip | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Supremacy | 12.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Buck Moon | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Weyburn | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Southern District | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Doubly Blessed | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Candy Tycoon | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pirate’s Punch | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Spa City | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Twelve Volt Man | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.