May 30, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Sparkle of Hope | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Megan’s Clara | 5.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Four Dawn | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bizzy Echo | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bourbina | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Run Fearless | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Zmuda | 5.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Nogratz | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pontiffany | 10.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | I Cross My Heart | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Oaxaca | 5.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gardenly | 5.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Maxine’s Candy | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Open Says Me | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Mo Heat | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | El Franco | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Kidyounot | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Chase Tracker | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fightville | 3.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Plemmonston | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Barstow | 4.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Stud Puppy | 10.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Tightwad | 5.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Chileno | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Touch Code | 10.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Jeeper | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Magnificus | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Supercool | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Gate Runner | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Conspiracy Fact | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | G Flat | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Mount Athos | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Nepotism | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Group Hug | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Southern Passage | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Moon Dog | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Leading West | 4.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fed Money | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Jelly Nougat | 4.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Thanks Mr. Eidson | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | On Your Mark | 4.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Major Wager | 20.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bad Beat Brian | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Anaconda | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Devil’s Tower | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Cowan | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Gallant Guy | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Strike Me Down | 3.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 7 | Ready to Pounce | 12.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 1A | 13 | Elusive Mischief | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Sprinklehead | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 14 | Upstriker | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Mutakatif (IRE) | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Greener Pastures | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Uber Kirk | 15.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bourbon Thunder | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Meister | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Angkor | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Right Tone | 8.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cryo | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Critical Threat | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | A C Expressway | 3.50 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Schmoozin | 15.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Winning Colors S.) – Winning Colors S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Tipsy Gal | 15.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Joyful Cadence | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sconsin | 1.20 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Novel Squall | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Li’l Tootsie | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Euphoric | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Calrissian | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Sticky Issue | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sailor’s Return | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Stamkos | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Madison Luvs Duke | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Consulate | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Vintage Year | 3.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Surrogate | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Always Above | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Trumpets Blare | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Biggie | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Lolas Beau | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Little Red Rifle | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Aquacat | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.