May 28, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Starrininmydreams | 1.80 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Prioritization | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Blue Jays | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Direct Line | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Beachwalker | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cousin Larry | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Incitatus | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tio Blas | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Make Noise | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | O Cigano | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Revenio | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Zoffa | 2.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Icecap | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Altered | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Sinner’s Sin | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Improbable Journey | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Woodline | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hippodrome | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | American Mayhem | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Feliciano | 3.50 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Alpha Whiskey | 10.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Top of the Charts | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Maven | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Oceanic | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | County Final | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Seven Nation Army | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Manny Wah | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Totally Boss | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Inhalation (GB) | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Surveillance | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Special Reserve | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Edgemont Road | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Silverleaf | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Lady Commander | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Out Dancing | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Runaway Wife | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Lantern’s Candy | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 7 | Pillbox | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 8 | Economic Hangover | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Surcharge | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Naval Officer | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lunar Rocket | 5.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Devil’s Glen | 12.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bad Decisions | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | C J All the Way | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Loco | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Tempo Madness | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Right of Rush | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Happy Romance | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Polsar | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | North Bay | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Taffin | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Yearn for Victory | 10.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Evan Sing | 4.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Eleven Central | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Red Hornet | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Grael | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Arabian Prince | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mr. Tip | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Eyes On Target | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | High Deff (FR) | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mount Kenya | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 13 | Aussie Pride | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Gingrich | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | McLaren Vale | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | My Romeo Lima | 8.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Scotland Yard | 10.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ridley’s Major | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bon Bueno | 15.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | War Campaign | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Pioneering Spirit | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Unified Dreams | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Young Turk | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Civics Class | 20.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bright Prospecter | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Supercool | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | G Flat | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Magnificus | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Conspiracy Fact | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Touch Code | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Gate Runner | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Gun It | 1.80 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ebben | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Shadow Matter | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Awesome Gerry | 2.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dennis’ Moment | 2.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Atoka | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Keertana Overnight S.) – Keertana Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Stand Tall | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Disappearing Act | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Undisturbed | 15.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Luck Money | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Go Big Blue Nation | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | La Lune (GB) | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Temple City Terror | 3.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Malibu Marlee | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Federalist Papers | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Static Fire | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cancel This | 12.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bali Dreamin | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Pipeline Girl | 12.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Ontheonesandtwos | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Massard | 12.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ari Oakley | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Social Mandate | 30.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Highland Square | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Code for Success | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Taleofreadychianti | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.