May 27, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 5 | Owen’s Leap | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Justafever | 2.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Summonyourcourage | 1.80 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 7 | Charlie Whiskey | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 6 | Baytown Get It On | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Tustler | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1A | 4 | Spurs Up | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Soul Streit | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Denver City | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Reed Kan | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Richiesgotswagger | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Caramelito | 6.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | League of Shadows | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Jammers Justice | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Never Have I Ever (IRE) | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Curbs and Cones | 1.80 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Nana’s Gray | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Appalachianheights | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Super Wonder Girl | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cycologist | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1A | 7 | Red Queen | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | Classy Chrome | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Selena Sing | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Candywrapper Crazy | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Raceday Attire | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Jamaican Traffic | 12.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Outlaw Queen | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Purchase Point | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Monocacy | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Maggie’s Will | 30.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dogwoods Becca | 30.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Stepstones | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Princedreamcess | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Bern N Ash | 15.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fireman Dan | 20.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Monologue | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Endless Sunset | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | American Smooth | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Chisholm Trail | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Mundo Mix | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Carillo | 3.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Takin Risks | 30.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Math Man | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Fieldstone | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | El Socio | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Wing Commander | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Assiduously (GB) | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Thirsty Betrayal | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Can Imagine | 20.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Win With Pride | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Crime Spree | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Eagle Pass | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Jurisdiction | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Firery Tale | 5.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Skyscanner | 3.50 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Butterbean | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dance It | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Five Prizes | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Forever After All | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Amenset | 12.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Fine Cotton | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | She’s Keen | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Catch Magic | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Aaliyah Ezri | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Music Street | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Lady Commander | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Surcharge | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Lantern’s Candy | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Runaway Wife | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | A G Indy | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tiz Splendid News | 2.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Red Ghost | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Short Summer Dress | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Thundering Creed | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Violenza | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Risky Reward | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Bear Oak | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Honorary Degree | 6.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | River Echo (GB) | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Deano | 20.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Muscadine | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Money for Mischief | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Higher Authority | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Cabertoss | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1A | 11 | Bear Alley | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | High Spirits | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 9 | All West | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.