May 26, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Background | 12.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Silver Dust | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sprawl | 6.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Pirate’s Punch | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Admission Office | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Henley’s Joy | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Big Dreaming | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Fenwick Station | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Lake Tahoe | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Joyful Candy | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hearns | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Make My Own Luck | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | East of India | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Congrats to Mi | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shacklesfly | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | Towhead | 1.40 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Catherine Blaze | 8.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Mo Bonita | 1.60 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Fun Money | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Chiquita Mosca | 20.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1A | 7 | Les Bon Temps | 1.40 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | Frango Electrico | 15.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Song of Storms | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Floris | 20.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Believing | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | World of Wonder | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Donya Know It | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Memphis Cash Queen | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Ipsum Gratus | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Champagne Sister | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bella Conchita | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Strong Embrace | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Lizy D | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Hal’s Dream | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Silky Warrior (IRE) | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Twentytwenty Hoax | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Little Mombo | 0.80 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Divine Hope | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lamasco | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sha Girl | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ladybelucky | 4.50 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Maggie E | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Summer Storm | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Delta Gamma Cats | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Copper Charm | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Dulcimer Dame | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Invaluable | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Destiny’s Darling | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Frills | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Especially You | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Ancient Brown | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | A Lot of Spunk | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Queen Bourbon | 10.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | R Calli Kim | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Scarabea | 2.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Good Measure | 20.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Designer Ready | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Met in Miami | 5.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Malibu Marlee | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | High Fashion | 3.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Second Row Center | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | My Sweet Story | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Three Tipsy Chix | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Stepper | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Ensemble (IRE) | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Luckman | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | My Brother Cam | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | My Favorite Uncle | 4.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Scattershack | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Seven Flat | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Calipari | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rerally | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Big Redwhiteblue | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Heston | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Pudge Boy Palace | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.