May 20, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Oak (IRE) | 0 | 0-1 | |||
| 3 | 3 | Dominicana | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Moon Magic Chrissy | 8.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Grand Oak (IRE) | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Realitos | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | She’s Jersey Tuff | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Cowichan (IRE) | 1.80 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | You’re a Dandy | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 7 | Late September | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 2 | Jeremy’s Jet | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 8 | Tivy | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 9 | Easy Big Boy | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | La Mari | 10.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 1 | El Gavilan | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1A | 4 | You Chose Wisely | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 5 | Archarch Cat | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
| 5 | 6 | Revere Note | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Matt’s Honey | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Queen Louise | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Positive Vibes | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Kimberley Dream | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Carry On | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | She Wants More | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Very Wealthy | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rufa Red Knot | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hot Anna | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cami Cat | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Shrimpie | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Tones | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Day N the Stars | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Cowboy Diplomacy | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 6 | Next | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 5 | Attentive | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Artemus Eagle | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 4 | Intraday (BRZ) | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 7 | Good Juju | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 1A | 3 | Celerity | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Best Bet | 1.80 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Engrave | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Minnesota Ready | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Can’t Hush This | 8.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Active Duty | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Bluegrass Royale | 6.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hill of Gold | 6.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Sea Force | 5.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mustazeed | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Overslept | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Verb | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Full Impact | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Hope and Dignity | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Roderick | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Emerald Express | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Majestic West | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Picasso | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Unified Report | 6.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Monition | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Skyro | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Continental Coins | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Split the Wickets | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | El Kabong | 4.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Ocean Atlantique | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Point Me By | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Speitful Sam | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Jimmy Dan | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Shackleford’s Joy | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Haig Point | 12.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Eron Do Jaguarete (BRZ) | 12.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Megacity | 6.00 | 18 | 34-1 |
| 17 | 17 | Pirate’s Punch | 3.00 | 18 | 34-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Attorney Tim | 12.00 | 18 | 34-1 |
| 18 | 18 | Claytnthelionheart | 4.00 | 18 | 34-1 |
| 16 | 16 | Mutakatif (IRE) | 12.00 | 18 | 34-1 |
| 15 | 15 | Cullum Road | 15.00 | 18 | 34-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Plausible Denile | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Prize Fighter | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Paid Twice | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Open Road | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Kiawah Breeze | 6.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Predominate | 4.50 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Roaring Gap | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | York Tavern | 10.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Boone’s Path | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.