May 13, 2022 Santa Anita Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Bud Knight | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Warrens Candy Man | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Arrabiata | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Dominant Soul | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sundown Warren | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Kimmer | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Primer Dimer | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | The Reign Song | 1.60 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Miss Lucilla | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | It’s Saul Right | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Smokem for You | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Paddle On Polly | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shift to Win | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Octane (BRZ) | 2.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bestrella (IRE) | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kuora (PER) | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | A New Peace | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Zeyaraat | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Derby Quest | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Offshore Affair | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Octopus | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Synthesis | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Quick Finish | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Jamming Eddy | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Zimba Warrior | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Full Draw | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Southern Horse (ARG) | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | City Rage | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Chaos Theory | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Rookie Mistake | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Whooping Jay | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Olympic Legend | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Creative Peak | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Grazed | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Leyas Candy | 5.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Torrid Tommy | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Irondale | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dutch Bus | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Super Chief | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Doyoustillloveme | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Armaveer | 20.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Drizella | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Teddy’s Barino | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Norah’s Princess | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pray for My Owner | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Smoothlikebuttah | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Li’l Grazen | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Race Judicata | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Luxury Liner | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Mo Them Down | 4.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Candy for Carmel | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Tiz Tact Toe | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Nineeleventurbo | 3.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Today Matters | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Amadmadworld | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lookout Point | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Explain This Audit | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gebo | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.