May 12, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Top of My Game | 2.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sergeant Countzler | 1.80 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Undalay | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Drew’s Gold | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fast Forward | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tustler | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Overly d’Oro | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Jeremy’s Jet | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Field Daisey | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | La Tourista | 15.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Stellar Grace | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Beachside Bunny | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lucky Carlene | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Beverly’s Charge | 3.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sweet Confusion | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Futile | 15.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Drena’s Star | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Boa Nova (IRE) | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lost in Limbo | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Impressed | 2.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Soaring Bird | 3.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Quick Return | 4.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Black Panda | 3.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Raceday Attire | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hannah’s Haven | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Pontiffany | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bel Aria | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | High Value Target | 4.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Slam Diego | 4.50 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Scooch | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Grey Streak | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Fort Moultrie | 4.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kygo (GER) | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bohemian Boy | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Assiduously (GB) | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sliabh Aughty (FR) | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Policy Option | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Eli | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Second of July | 10.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Fed Money | 15.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Southern Passage | 4.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mobster Gun | 5.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Full Charge | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Invisible War | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Perfect Cut | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Maximum Impact | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Nepotism | 10.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mount Athos | 6.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Endless Sunset | 12.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Brigadier General | 4.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Greatheart | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Macallan | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Alejandro | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Koolhaus | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Soros | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Scales of Justice | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Protonic Power | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Viburnum | 5.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Two Sixtyone | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Dreamful | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hat Tip | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Youens | 2.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Silky Warrior (IRE) | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Cuzzywuzzy | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Off We Go | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Megan’s Clara | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Celestial Spin | 15.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hatari | 8.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | H. T. Xena | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.