May 6, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Idiomatic | 4.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Imogene Malvina | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Customer Driven | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sequist | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Skratch Kat | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Early Glow | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Fannie and Freddie | 3.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Park On the Nile | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Inventing | 1.40 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Classic Coyne | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Oma the Great | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | I Cross My Heart | 20.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Olga Isabel | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | South Georgia | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | She’s Keen | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Jetinwithclass | 30.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Misread | 3.50 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | One Full Moon | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Blamethechampagne | 6.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 9 | 9 | High Resolution | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | Q F Seventy Five | 1.40 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Red Hornet | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Myopic | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Aviano | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mr. Tip | 10.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1A | 9 | Arabian Prince | 1.40 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Grael | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Southern Passage | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | To Kalon | 50.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Powder River | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Juju’s Map | 1.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Illiogami | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Miss Tulsa | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Compelling Smile | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Tabor Hall | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Family Time | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Microcap | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Semble Juste (IRE) | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Shesa Mystery | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – Modesty S. Presented By Twinspires
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Curly Ruth | 6.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Fluffy Socks | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | She Can’t Sing | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Bleecker Street | 1.80 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hendy Woods | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Stand Tall | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Pass the Plate | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mona Stella | 30.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lake Lucerne | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – La Troienne S. Presented By Signify Health
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Battle Bling | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Jilted Bride | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Pauline’s Pearl | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Shedaresthedevil | 1.20 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | She’s All Wolfe | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Temper Time | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Ava’s Grace | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Alysheba S. Presented By Sentient Jet
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Max Player | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Happy Saver | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Olympiad | 1.80 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Soy Tapatio | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Title Ready | 20.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Militarist | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Weyburn | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Fulsome | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Edgewood S. Presented By Forcht Bank
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | McKulick (GB) | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Spicer | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dolce Zel (FR) | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Dream Lith | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | New Year’s Eve | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Beechnut Trophy | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | My Philly Twirl | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kneesnhips | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | An Agent Mistake | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tap Dancing Lady | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Eight Belles S. Presented By Twinspires
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Matareya | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Pretty Birdie | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sweet as Pie | 12.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Gerrymander | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Wicked Halo | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Sweet Dani Girl | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ain’t Easy | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Awake At Midnyte | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Marissa’s Lady | 3.50 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lac Vieux Desert | 30.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Twin Spires Turf Sprint S. Presented By Sysco
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Pyron | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Arrest Me Red | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Caravel | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Johnny Unleashed | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Gregorian Chant (GB) | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Gear Jockey | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cowan | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Whatmakessammyrun | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Diamond Oops | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Chasing Artie | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | The Lir Jet (IRE) | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Just Might | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bran (FR) | 10.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Longines Kentucky Oaks
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Nest | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Echo Zulu | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Shahama | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Goddess of Fire | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Kathleen O. | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Secret Oath | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hidden Connection | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Nostalgic | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Turnerloose | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 15 | 15 | Beguine | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Yuugiri | 30.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Desert Dawn | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Venti Valentine | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Candy Raid | 30.00 | 11.9 | 22-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Cocktail Moments | 30.00 | 12 | 23-1 |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Society | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 8 | Wish You Well | 1.80 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1A | 13 | Let’s Be Clear | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Reagan’s Decision | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 12 | Ontheonesandtwos | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 4 | Angitude | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 12 | 11 | Vaccine of Hope | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 6 | Taleofreadychianti | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 7 | Cancel This | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Feeling Happy | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 11 | 10 | Napa Candy | 10.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
| 6 | 5 | Rain Check | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
| 10 | 9 | Princess Elin | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 13 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Fabulous Fanny | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Colorful Mischief | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Merci Road | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Milan’s Girl | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Super Christie | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Little Blaze | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sis Boom Bob | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | An Apple a Day | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Swift Thinker | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Jag Warrior | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Street Jam | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Catch Magic | 12.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Maggie E | 15.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Rather Be Lucky | 4.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
| 15 | 15 | Comedy Act | 20.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 |
| 16 | 16 | Twentytwenty Hoax | 30.00 | 12.9 | 24-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.