May 5, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Higher Authority | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | The Boss Factor | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Jurisdiction | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | High Spirits | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Youvesaiditall | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Estilo Peligroso | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Till Then | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Colombiano | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Empire of My Own | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | American Apple | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Divine Grace | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Devious Dame | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | You Chose Wisely | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Catherine Blaze | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Devious Delight | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Frankie Barone | 6.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Abuelo Nuno | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bobby Baby | 30.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Wile E Peyote | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cove Blue | 1.20 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Silver N Lai | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | David’s Gem | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Muy Caro | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Rye Humor | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Baby Yoda | 1.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Samurai Prince | 4.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Windy City Red | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Divine Leader | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hooperdrivesthboat | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | The Queens Jules | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Denver City | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mo’s Mojo | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | James Jones | 4.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Enough Already | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Advanced Placement | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 15 | 15 | Piccadilly | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Field Marshal | 3.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Urban Recovery | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sailor’s Return | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 17 | 17 | Warrior Johny | 3.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 13 | 13 | McGolden | 5.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Twirling Blues | 10.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Rule the Empire | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Vintage Year | 12.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Sticky Issue | 12.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Luckman | 20.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Alyanaabi | 30.00 | 11.2 | 21-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sprinklehead | 30.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 |
| 16 | 16 | Jr’s Gift | 30.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Defied | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dual Threat | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | He’s a Keeper | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Gut Feeling | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Beyblader | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Big Blue Line | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bronze Halo | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Group Eighteen | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Belle Rebelle | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Social Dilemma | 3.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Love of My Heart | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Rookery | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ursulina | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Downtown Abby | 2.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Anna Volante | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Wings of an Angel | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Flashy Charge | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Opening Verse Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Max K. O. | 10.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Set Piece (GB) | 1.80 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Gray’s Fable | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Monarchs Glen (GB) | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kentucky Ghost | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Beatbox | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mr Dumas | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Captivating Moon | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Spanish Kingdom | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Kentucky Pharoah | 30.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Spectacular Gem | 30.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hidden Stash | 30.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Kentucky Juvenile S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Hurricane Debbie | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Simply Super | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Ryvit | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | King Adrock | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mr. Gordy | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tom’s Regret | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ferrari Kid | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Hill of Tara | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lone Leader | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 12 | 12 | The Big Wam | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cool Spirit | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Baytown Lovely | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Unbridled Sidney S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Brooke Marie | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Goin’ Good | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | In Good Spirits | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Tobys Heart | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Catch a Bid | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Change of Control | 3.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Bullseye Beauty | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ambassador Luna | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Social Chatter | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Somebody Loves Me | 4.50 | 1.9 | 3-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Tachlis | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Shes Greekandsleek | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mrs. Nushi | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sweet Truffles | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Quick Munny | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Love of My Life | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Abby the Bull Dawg | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Monocacy | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Maxine’s Candy | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.