April 30, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Brawndo | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Terawatt | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Haney Boys | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fireman Dan | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Speed Boat | 1.40 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Formal Order | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Areyoutalkingtome | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Deano | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Soul Streit | 2.50 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Drewzano | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Spend Benjamins | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | El Venue | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | My Man Flintstone | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Honey Won’t | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Frills | 1.60 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | A Lot of Spunk | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Brunella | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Foreign Exchange | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Delta Gamma Cats | 1.80 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | La Tourista | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Bryce Canyon | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Evan Sing | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Stitched | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1A | 6 | Gingrich | 4.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 5 | Bakwena | 4.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Mount Kenya | 5.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 7 | Ginsburned | 6.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | Grandeur | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 9 | Koolhaus | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 10 | Great Escape | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | J L’s Rockette | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Altered Shot | 1.80 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mucho Macho Momma | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Old Pho | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bourbina | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Premier Wish | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Inviting | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Runaway Wife | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Summer Mate | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Take a Stand | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Miss Yearwood | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bayou Wind | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Five Prizes | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Bandimere | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Tricolour | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Levee Proud | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Workinfromhome | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Big Paper | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Hold the Line | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Strong Light | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Moon Dog | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | My Favorite Uncle | 4.50 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Down to Bizzness | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fotheringay | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | He’s a Keeper | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Bay Storm | 1.80 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Spicy Marg | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Richies Great Girl | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Blissful Change | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sterling Miss | 5.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Southern Mama | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mused (GB) | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Inajiffy | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mamba Wamba (IRE) | 6.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lemos Cunha | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Habobanero | 30.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Clara Peeters (GB) | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Gerri B | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Competent | 30.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Roxelana Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Bayerness | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Club Car | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cheetara (CHI) | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Euphoric | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Carribean Caper | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Vasilevskiy (IRE) | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Knightly Mischief | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ashwins Orb | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mr Ghost | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Out Work’n | 4.50 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | My Hot Toddy | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | River Stones | 15.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Keep On | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Super Brother | 15.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mighty Craic | 20.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Isthmian | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Gallant Dude | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Me We | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Lake Tahoe | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Zipper Zapper | 20.00 | 11.4 | 22-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.