April 30, 2022 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Corkman | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | It’s Mandatory | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Majestic Tiger | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Road to Success | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Roman Empire | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Blake B. | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Aristocratic | 1.20 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Glory Road | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rejected Again | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Uno | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Happy Farm | 1.60 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mount Travers | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Musical America | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Magnetron | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Flowers for Lisa | 1.60 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Even Thunder | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Blood Moon | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Playwright | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Vicar’s Legend | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | F F Rocket | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Desolator | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Smile Bryan | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Prioritize | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Big Agenda | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Summer to Remember | 2.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Hieroglyphics | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | American Lincoln | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Grand Journey | 3.50 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dark Storm | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Auburn Hills | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Giocare | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Bankers Daughter | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Blame It On Mary | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | True Empress | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Thinking It Over | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Salsa a Parte | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Adversity | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Fancy Feline | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Know It All Audrey | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Captivating Cara | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Poncho Song | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Moam | 10.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | With Bells On | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gather the Facts | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Dame Time | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Broadway Boogie | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Snow Loves a Fight | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Not So Grimm | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Big Bee | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dolce Sera | 30.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mostly Harmless | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Precursory | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Southern District | 1.60 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tiergan | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | The Reds | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sibelius | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Harvard | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Waxman | 2.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Market Alert | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Torch of Truth | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Rally Squirrel | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Timbuktu | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mr Breadwinner | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Lord Flintshire | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Saratoga Flash | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Salute to America | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Umbria | 3.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sandro the Great | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bohemian Ruby | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Uncle Curly | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Barleewon | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Breadman | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Practice Squad | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Mr. Kringle | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Convertible Freeze | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Amedeus Music | 20.00 | 13.4 | 25-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Elusive Quality S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Proven Strategies | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Snapper Sinclair | 4.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Penalty | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Milton the Monster | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Therapist | 5.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Scuttlebuzz | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Value Proposition (GB) | 3.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Big Package | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Majestic Dunhill | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | American Monarch | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Toro Strike | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Basis Risk | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Patrick the Great | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Two for Charging | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | George’s Gambit | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tap’n de Bank | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Kaz Sugar Bank | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Ouster | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Majority Partner | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sinful Dancer | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mischief Mogul | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | N Y Anthem | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.