April 29, 2022 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Sol Del Sur | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | You’re to Blame | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | American Tattoo (ARG) | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Peekacho | 3.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | C Falls | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Direct Line | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Love Reigns (IRE) | 3.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Delight | 3.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Rivka (IRE) | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Dazzlingdominika | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Special Bond | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | One Stormy Lady | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Drama Diva | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kazillion | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | You’re a Dandy | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Moon Magic Chrissy | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Thatshowsherolls | 12.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Recio’s Baytown | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Catherine Blaze | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Canary | 10.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Shezz Koldazice | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Next Tuesday | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Condiment Girl | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sleepless Dream | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Willamina | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lunar Ice | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | White Lilacs | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Layla’s Song | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Think Twice | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mejthaam | 6.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Summer Anthem | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Flying Fred | 4.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Pancake House | 4.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tangled Emotions | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Double Spun | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Frontal Assault | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Close Knit | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | You Make Me Happy | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lolas Beau | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Habitus | 5.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Turtar Mara | 30.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Pyrite | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Dominican Pioneer | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hill of Gold | 15.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Unified Dreams | 12.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Woodline | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lute’s Angel | 30.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Devil’s Glen | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Spankster | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cyclone | 3.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Sergeant Reckless | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Bochombo | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tommy Bee | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Credibility | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bloodline | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Droppin G’s | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Xavey Dave | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Roughly a Diamond | 20.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Immoral | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Sacred Samurai | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Cynwyd | 2.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Aswan | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | War Campaign | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Gold Boss | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Cloud Without Rein | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Rampatious | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Let My People Go | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Harmon Killer Brew | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Bewitch S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | War Like Goddess | 0.60 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Family Way | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Breeze Rider | 15.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | La Lune (GB) | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Core Values | 30.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Stand Tall | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Luck Money | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Canadian Pride | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Kneedeepinsnow | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Atoka | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Shadow Matter | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dennis’ Moment | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Surveillance | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ournationonparade | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Hail to Thee | 10.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tallahatchiebridge | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Durante | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Speaking Scout | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Monologue | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Naval Aviator | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Rocket One | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Verstappen | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Icarus | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Protonic Power | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Lucky Boss | 20.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Spin Wheel | 12.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Guntown | 15.00 | 11.2 | 21-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.