April 28, 2022 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Try SFTB Plus for Free
$10 a Month Gets You Horse Racing Advanced Stats including an optimizer for each race.
Sign up now and get 7 days free of charge!
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 9 | No Nay Hudson (IRE) | 1.80 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 7 | Ashcroft | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 5 | The Big Wam | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 8 | Top of My Game | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2B | 4 | Spurs Up | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1A | 6 | Baytown Get It On | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Tia Frida | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Baytown Melody | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 3 | Tustler | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Liberty Hall | 8.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Uncle Headley | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Wico (IRE) | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Roman Giant | 12.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Andthewinneris | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Undalay | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cadillac Candy | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bourbon Therapy | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mabuhay | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | I Am Freaky Fast | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Revere Note | 30.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Study Committee | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Hope and Dignity | 1.60 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sag Harbor | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | English Tide | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Quick Return | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sir Giannis | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Santa Cruiser | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Dame Cinco | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Nana’s Gray | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Smile At the Storm | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Sofia Strong | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | World of Wonder | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | High Fair | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | J Zertz | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Gigablast | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | American Starlet | 4.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Castle Leoch | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Jura | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Casanova Kitten | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Switzer | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Uber Kirk | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Cut Glass | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Thirsty Owl | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Baytown Warrior | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gold Heritage | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | Patna | 4.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Quaria Comet | 10.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Beauxs Artes | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1A | 11 | Chaberton | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Pillbox | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Smugness | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Quist and Shout | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Alessia | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | One Time Mo | 10.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Silencing | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Speightsy Hot | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Ladybelucky | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Ulikeapples | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Beside Herself | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Bravo Kitten | 3.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Pearl Earring | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Two Socks (IRE) | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Whenthedawnbreaks | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Shad Nation | 4.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cecilita | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lavish Habits | 6.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Honey Run | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Myfavoritedaughter | 10.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 1A | 13 | Schlofmitz | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Amani’s Image | 20.00 | 11.4 | 21-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Memphis Cash Queen | 30.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Union Maiden | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Novel Squall | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Music City Star | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Thundering Creed | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Red Ghost | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Skinny Dip | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Polyglot | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Three Wolves | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Calrissian | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | City Legend | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Lord Zed | 5.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Simply Jack | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Sticky Issue | 5.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Ardanwood | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Kalakaua | 30.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Blue Devil | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Mighty Sea | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Deep State | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Summer Anthem | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 6 | Livingstone | 15.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Shannonrun | 30.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Aquacat | 30.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.