April 23, 2022 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Relentless Dancer | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Copper Town | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | American Mandate | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Yes He Can | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Spycraft | 2.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Silent Movies | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Charge the Line | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Uptown Hustler | 3.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Lawmaker | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Rum ‘n Tonic | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Dom Gervasio | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Trevise | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Say It Loud | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Floyd G | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lasttraintoboston | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Atras | 4.50 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mustazeed | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bendettijoe | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Wellman | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Liberty Star | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Oncoming Train | 5.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Dark Timber | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Hatch | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Coffee With Alex | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Dixie’s Two Stents | 2.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Danzel | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Jewelofakid | 8.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Emerald | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bayou Wind | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Salit | 2.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Oaxaca | 6.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Frosted Diamond | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lantern’s Candy | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Why Lea | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Classy Miss | 4.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Baby Blue Eyes | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Forever Home | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Ensemble (IRE) | 8.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Nevisian Sunrise | 1.80 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Seasons | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Commanders Palace | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Joy of Painting | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Infinite Potential (IRE) | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Designer Ready | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lubna (GB) | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Runaway Mom | 30.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Casa de Goat | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Music Street | 8.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Faith’s Reward | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Toffee | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Catwings | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lovely Princess | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sweet Baby Ray | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Please Be Kind | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Sweet Enough (GB) | 4.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | I Hear You | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 10 | Saranya | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1A | 9 | Keeper of Time (IRE) | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 11 | Niceno | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Take Charge Ro | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Market Rumor | 6.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Gam’s Mission | 3.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Whimsical Muse | 30.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Zamzam | 15.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Flippant | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 12 | Misty Veil | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Ben Ali S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Dynamic One | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Warrant | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Scalding | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Proxy | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mighty Heart | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cowboy Diplomacy | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tartufo | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Title Ready | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Elkhorn S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Channel Maker | 2.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bemma’s Boy | 5.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Another Mystery | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tiberius Mercurius | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Cullum Road | 30.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Two Emmys | 3.50 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Bama Breeze | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sole Volante | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Phantom Currency | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 7 | Momentous | 4.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Unikee | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | B Sudd | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Condemn | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Legendary Lore | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Slim Slow Slider | 12.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Britain’s Kitten | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Red Label | 20.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Great Escape | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Tough to Tame | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Giant Nova | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.