April 22, 2022 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Mrs. Nushi | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Bachelorette | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cupid’s Strike | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Yo Puedo | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Very Wealthy | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Allocate | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Shell Shock | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Willymar | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Pharoah’s Song | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Edye’s Candy | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kivalina | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Frippet | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Spartina | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sacred Kitten | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Quaria Dream | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Paris Kentucky | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rosia Bay | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Threave’s Company | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Under One Sky | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Miss Susie R | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Casa de Goat | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Lost Bikini | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Walkathon | 4.50 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | What’s to Do | 20.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Jelly Nougat | 4.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Crimson and Cream | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Versatile | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Scattershack | 8.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bourbon Magic | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Snowscape | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Arrow Strike | 10.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Swath | 4.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Loco | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Heston | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Jazzy Lady | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Absolute Love | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Sense You Left | 2.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Jump Into the Fire | 2.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Teller to Sing | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Singsong Bird | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Carry On | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Miss Moon Pie | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 8 | Sand and Sea | 4.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Only Kidding | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Off We Go | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Cruz Bay | 5.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ursulina | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Iron Lady Away | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Six Feet Apart | 3.50 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Salvaje | 5.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mun Luv | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Lubna (GB) | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 10 | Nota Bene | 15.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dynamite Gift | 15.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kona Kai | 30.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Mouffy | 1.60 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Storm Kiss | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Olivia Darling | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Querobin Dourada | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Knowing Glance | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Taleofreadychianti | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lovely Lisa | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Aussie Pride | 4.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Afjan | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Silver Spur | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Greys the Boy | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bringer of Rain | 30.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Stay Restless | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Making It | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Always Above | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bright Prospecter | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Curlin’s Malibu | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Maqamat | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Away From Home | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | City Legend | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | British Royalty | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Cibolian | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Risk Taking | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Modus Operandi (IRE) | 5.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Fenwick Station | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Jimmy Dan | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Reigning Spirit | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Blanket of Roses | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Celerity | 30.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Offlee Naughty | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | English Conqueror | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Baird Doubledogdare S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Bonny South | 1.60 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Malathaat | 0.80 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lady Mystify | 15.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Crazy Beautiful | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Audrey’s Time | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Super Quick | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Musical Design | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Icy River | 12.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Jazz Time Girl | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | On the Rise | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Devilly | 4.50 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ms Merrabel | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Honorably | 6.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lady Pele | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Colonel Aby B | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Teasing | 12.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Capital Allocation (GB) | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Vinegar Veggies | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Ladybelucky | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Trouble Making | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Shannon | 15.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | My Lily Mae | 8.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.