April 21, 2022 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 7 | Till Then | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | English Challenge | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 6 | Duel Fuel | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Higher Authority | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Mississippi | 3.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | Irish Declaration | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | El Franco | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Estilo Peligroso | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Grand Oak (IRE) | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Catcha Later Mo | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Somebodylovesyou | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Lotta Moscato | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lady Evelyn Can | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | She’s Jersey Tuff | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | You Chose Wisely | 10.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Thatshowsherolls | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Crackalacking | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hippie Trail | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Dominicana | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Logical Myth | 5.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lafitte’s Fleet | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Stage Left | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | He Hate Me | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Caramelito | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cave Hill | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Nottoway | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | McFeely | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Super Design | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lyrical Poet | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ready to Answer | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Rockstar Ro | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Lomu | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Chief Howcome | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Apache Tears | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Foliage | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pledgeofallegiance | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Dark Timber | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | World Party | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Simply Beguiled | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Big Bugg’s Girl | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bitter Vixen | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Waywardness | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Gorilla Girl | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Pliantlea | 4.50 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | La Tourista | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rhubarb Martini | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | La Neblina | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Fieldstone | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Our Country | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Eyes On Target | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hawk of War | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Counterstrike | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | King Tuff | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Optimus Kat | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Of the Moment | 6.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Malibu Time | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Invisible War | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Carmichael | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Gun Rush | 30.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | To Kalon | 30.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Epimythium | 20.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | El Ahijado | 30.00 | 12.6 | 24-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Falconet | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tiffany’s Mo | 6.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Friendship Road | 4.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Tiz American | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Silverleaf | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mine for Passion | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Unbridled d’Oro | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fine Cotton | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Joezine | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Flanigan’s Cove | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Disappearing Act | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Go Big Blue Nation | 2.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 3 | Pallas Athene | 12.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 8 | Fate of Ophelia | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1A | 7 | Ya Beauty (GB) | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Tweety Show | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Go Big Green | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 9 | Gladys | 4.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 11 | Shady | 8.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Watermark | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Super Surge | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Hot Anna | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | I’m Stylin | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Backyard Hen | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Out of the Silence | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Queen Cordelia | 4.50 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Pistol | 5.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Dogwoods Becca | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Kiss Theory | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Anothermanicmonday | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.