April 16, 2022 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Believing | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Moonshine Dreamer | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Yes to Mischief | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lizy D | 8.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | H. T. Xena | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Classy Chrome | 6.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Gratz Park | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Chasing the Crown | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Camp Daddy | 20.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Truly Mischief | 15.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Growth Capital | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Spuns Son | 30.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Urban Forest | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Double Clutch | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mahoney Road | 4.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Airspeed Velocity | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mizzen Man | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Big Hello | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Tangled Emotions | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Bringer of Rain | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Taffin | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Luckman | 10.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | He Reigns | 50.00 | 14.3 | 27-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Recoded | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 10 | Short Summer Dress | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1A | 7 | Dance Rhythms | 2.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Yogurt | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 9 | Vintage Ready | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | Remain Anonymous | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Habobanero | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Bold Figure | 30.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 5 | Sterling Miss | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Distinctive Flower | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Under Oath | 3.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | True Jedi | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dini d’Amore | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Artorius | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rikio | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Kansas Comet | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Strings | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Krahenbuhl | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Cloud Without Rein | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Kingmaker | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Vintage Vinyl | 15.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Improbable Journey | 12.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | The Judge and Jury | 30.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 14 | 11 | You Make Me Happy | 20.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Freedom’s Way | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Skylander | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Credit Event | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Merci | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Limited Liability | 3.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Watch the Music | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Churchtown | 6.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Setna the Wise | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Play Action Pass | 8.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Slim Slow Slider | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Gingrich | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Tyson | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Blacksmith Strong | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Lesson Learned (IRE) | 15.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Underdressed | 20.00 | 13.2 | 25-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Brit’s Wit | 30.00 | 14.9 | 28-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Rational Choice | 2.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Wayakin | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Soros | 15.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mr. Tip | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Martini Blu | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Meister | 2.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Southern Passage | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Candy Tycoon | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Basquiat | 12.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Runway Magic | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Here Mi Song | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Next | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Therideofalifetime | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Flamingo Hawk | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Speitful Sam | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Second of July | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Injunction | 2.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Ebben | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Giant’s Causeway S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Jouster | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Change of Control | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | A G Indy | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Phantom Vision | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Campanelle (IRE) | 2.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Headline Hunter | 30.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Elle Z | 3.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Goin’ Good | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Ghosting Kim | 30.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Star Devine (IRE) | 30.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Hear My Prayer | 10.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Social Chatter | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Ambassador Luna | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Violenza | 30.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Risky Reward | 30.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Stonestreet Lexington S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Major General | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Dash Attack | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | We All See It | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Midnight Chrome | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | In Due Time | 3.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Skate to Heaven | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Call Me Midnight | 6.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Strava | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Tawny Port | 2.50 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ethereal Road | 10.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Howling Time | 15.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Jenny Wiley S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Shantisara (IRE) | 1.20 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Waliyak (FR) | 6.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Regal Glory | 1.40 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lady Speightspeare | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Navratilova | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Scarabea | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Highly Motivated | 1.60 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Awesome Gerry | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Chocolate Bar | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Escape Route | 3.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Ducale | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Soup and Sandwich | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Santa Cruiser | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Violent City | 12.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Payne | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Soaring Bird | 30.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Ournationonparade | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.