Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, January 16, 2022

January 16, 2022 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Cave Creek 2.00 1.2 2-1
1 1 Love and Lemons 5.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Belmar Beauty 1.60 2.9 6-1
2 2 Autumn Aspen 6.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Cry Like a Baby 6.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Altered Dream 12.00 4.6 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Blueridge Mountain 3.50 4.2 8-1
6 4 Big Falcon Rocket 5.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Tigerbeach 8.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 White Mist 8.00 5.5 10-1
8 6 Lighthawk 2.50 5.7 11-1
7 5 Foolish Steve 3.00 6.1 12-1
4 4 Convict Pike 4.50 SCRATCH
5 5 Sharpendup 1.20 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Smiling Angel 6.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Canada’s Customs 1.40 2.4 4-1
4 4 World of Hurt 12.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Anita’s Vision 3.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Macee 4.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Bougie Marie 12.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Winnie B 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Reckless Ransom 4.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Mr. Priority 8.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 Halfmoon Reef 6.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Hooray Austin 3.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Soul Song 8.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Pure Valor 4.50 5.4 10-1
4 4 Loveu and Proudofu 8.00 6.1 12-1
9 9 Donna’s Court 6.00 6.4 12-1
7 7 C’Mon Ve 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Callen Feels Good 6.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Bind Faith 5.00 3 6-1
4 4 Vero Campione 15.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Helaire 3.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 All Mike No Mae 6.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Magic Lightning 5.00 7.1 13-1
2 2 Chief Kimosabi 4.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Guitartuition Plzz 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Cadillac Ridge 5.00 1.3 2-1
6 6 Mizzen Monarch 6.00 6.5 12-1
2 2 Lucky Gone Sweet 20.00 6.6 12-1
7 7 Debs Prayer 12.00 8.5 16-1
1 1 Charged Temp 6.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Spider Legs 3.00 SCRATCH
5 5 World War 3.50 SCRATCH
8 8 Nin to Win 4.50 SCRATCH
9 9 She’s Our Star 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1A 7 Tee Burns 4.00 1.3 3-1
6 5 Sparky Hale 2.50 1.5 3-1
5 4 Loco 3.50 2.9 5-1
1 6 Speedy G 4.00 3.3 6-1
7 8 Loyal to the Game 8.00 4.2 8-1
4 3 Fastnfurious 8.00 5.5 10-1
2 1 Big Blue Line 6.00 5.6 11-1
3 2 Golden Luna 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Mom’s Red Lipstick 10.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Sail On Ellen 4.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Lady of Luxury 2.50 5.2 10-1
1 1 Chikara 8.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Threatlevelmidnite (GB) 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Vividly (GB) 5.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Inajiffy 3.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Mucha Mezquina 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Swot Analysis 3.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Release the Beast 10.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Pickens 6.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Double Barrel Man 3.50 3 6-1
4 4 Zion 4.50 4.5 9-1
8 8 Our Freddie Mac 12.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Flashy Brew 6.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 No Pedigree 6.00 6.9 13-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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