November 27, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Ice Baby | 4.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Have I Ever | 10.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Safe Travels | 8.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Disco Queen | 10.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Zmuda | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Fast Giselle | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Love of My Life | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Make Out | 10.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Verdandi | 12.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Star Table | 20.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Only Show in Town | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Medley | 3.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Eyeofthebeholder | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Keen Ice Sight | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Del Moon | 4.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mountain Pine | 15.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Loco | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Isthmian | 12.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | One Cool Dude | 15.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Supe | 15.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Pitch Dark | 20.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Malibu Time | 20.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Levee Proud | 30.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | You Make Me Happy | 30.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | El Cubanito | 30.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Unpredictable Bay | 1.60 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Koselio | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Strings | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Master Lea | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Scotch No Rocks | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Catwings | 4.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Jaccaci | 8.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Park On the Nile | 12.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Eclipsed | 15.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ain’t Broke | 5.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Princess Pauline | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bird Empress | 8.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Off the Charts | 12.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Honeycomb | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Gorgeous Carina | 20.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Super Fire | 15.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Blamethechampagne | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Burrow Down | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Runaway Wife | 5.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Savo Island | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Querobin Dourada | 10.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tricked Out | 8.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Gun Slingin | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Cocktail Moments | 15.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Laser Locked | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Gimme Candy | 12.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Daniella’s Cause | 15.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Delightof the Nile | 15.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Emityaaz | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Story Hour | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Beyond Perfection | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Bicameral | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Friendship Road | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Most Empressive | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Mistical Curlin | 8.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Magazine Street | 5.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Star Alignment | 8.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Wolfe County | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Andy Cant | 4.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cyclone | 12.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Curly Tail | 15.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Travel Guide | 20.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Spin Wheel | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Paid in Full | 50.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Commander Compton | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ten Gauge | 4.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | O P Firecracker | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Monologue | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Paid Twice | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Napa Valley | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Gunoe | 5.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Peaceful Waters | 8.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Benny the Book | 12.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | General Strike | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Brody’s Fly | 15.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | King Doodle | 15.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Halfmoon | 12.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Chasing Time | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Vigano | 15.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Pour Me a Double | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fort Defiance | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Gunfighter | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Ethereal Road | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Timeless Joke | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Call Me Jamal | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Kupuna | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Full Focus | 4.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Champagne Sister | 15.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Sax | 20.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Lavendar Lane | 20.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Miss Chamita | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Implosion | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Freedom Rose | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bhoma | 3.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Manasota Sunset | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Beverly’s Charge | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Mohaylady | 15.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Feeling Happy | 8.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Legendary Lore | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lucky Boss | 8.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Yono | 20.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Grand in Bay | 50.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Trademark | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Fan the Fire | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bonus Appreciation | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Play Action Pass | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Rocket One | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mr. Bouma | 5.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Kevin’s Folly | 12.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Wicked Genius | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Amicable | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Red Run | 6.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Lively Shively S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Chattalot | 3.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Ignitis | 8.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Cool Papa G | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Hoist the Gold | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Tejano Twist | 1.40 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Barber Road | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Charter Oak | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Ready to March | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Golden Rod S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Sandstone | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Yuugiri | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Code for Success | 12.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hal’s Dream | 20.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Secret Oath | 15.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cancel This | 20.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Famed | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dream Lith | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Kentucky Jockey Club S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 6 | Smile Happy | 12.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Classic Causeway | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Red Knobs | 15.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Ben Diesel | 15.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 14 | 11 | Call Me Midnight | 15.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Ready Pursuit | 50.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Vivar | 12.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Guntown | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rich Strike | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Tiz the Bomb | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Mannix (IRE) | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 8 | White Abarrio | 8.00 | 11.2 | 21-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Howling Time | 3.50 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Texas Red Hot | 12.00 | 12.7 | 24-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Stakes) – Fern Creek S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Marissa’s Lady | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bali Del Sol | 12.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Knowing Glance | 8.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Matareya | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Laura’s Charm | 15.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Verylittlecents | 3.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sweet Dani Girl | 2.50 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Golden Sights | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.