Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, November 26, 2021

November 26, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Rousing Siren 5.00 1.4 3-1
4 4 Southerner 4.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Seattlesway 20.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Cool Runnings 4.50 2.3 4-1
2 2 My Favorite Uncle 3.00 2.4 5-1
3 3 Command Central 6.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 Seminole Beach 3.50 3.2 6-1
1 1 Out Work’n 12.00 4.2 8-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Altered 12.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Belfast Boy 4.00 1.8 3-1
7 7 Big Nick 4.50 3.3 6-1
1 1 Oncoming Train 3.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Sir Giannis 3.50 5.1 10-1
3 3 Dark Timber 2.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Mo Betta 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 4 Standup Or Shut Up 10.00 1.2 2-1
3 2 High Fair 3.50 1.5 3-1
9 5 Queen’s Table 20.00 2.6 5-1
5 3 Miss Tulsa 3.50 2.9 5-1
1 1 Peyton’s College 4.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Voodoo Loa 15.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Supertaleofhoudini 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 November Rose 5.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Closet Shopper 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Perfect Choice 3.00 1.1 2-1
4 4 Judy’s Way 5.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Emilia’s Moon 3.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Stand for the Flag 5.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Powder River 5.00 2.9 6-1
3 3 Strong Silent 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Sweet Tea 5.00 1.1 2-1
5 5 Black Swan 10.00 1.3 2-1
6 6 Little Blaze 10.00 1.3 2-1
8 8 Encouraging 3.00 1.4 3-1
7 7 Flashy Charge 8.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Super Sport 3.50 2.1 4-1
4 4 Twentytwenty Hoax 15.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Anna Volante 2.50 3.6 7-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Hidden Promise 20.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Hombrazo 1.20 3.2 6-1
1 1 Higher Authority 15.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Something Natural 8.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 English Challenge 12.00 4.2 8-1
9 9 Alkhaatam 1.80 5.8 11-1
7 7 Cabertoss 10.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 Fire Marshall Bill 20.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Nietzsche 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Cherish the Day 10.00 1.8 3-1
9 9 Ipsum Gratus 15.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Hail to Helen 20.00 2 4-1
6 6 Ain’t She Dahrlin 5.00 2 4-1
5 5 Palm Court 2.50 2.1 4-1
11 11 Joy Unbridled 12.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Joan’s Way 10.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Miss Sovelia 50.00 4 8-1
8 8 Amari S. 50.00 4.2 8-1
13 13 Stacy Attack 10.00 4.6 9-1
10 10 Epicurean 2.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Cuzzywuzzy 10.00 6.1 12-1
1 1 I’m Stylin 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Enraged 5.00 1.7 3-1
8 8 Nip N Tuck 6.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Mists of Time 6.00 3 6-1
6 6 Sol Del Sur 4.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Notable Exception 5.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 The Feature 10.00 4 7-1
1 1 Cochise Charlie 15.00 6.1 11-1
2 2 Tuggle 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Huge Bigly 2.00 2.4 4-1
6 6 Farmington Road 4.00 2.4 5-1
8 8 Ironstone Road 20.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Jungle Warfare 15.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Twenty Twice 10.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Allege 2.50 4.4 8-1
7 7 Goalie 10.00 4.5 9-1
3 3 Patagonia 5.00 6.8 13-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Milliken 0.80 1 2-1
9 9 Injunction 8.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Gentle Soul 8.00 1.8 3-1
13 13 Tiz Rye Time 20.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Ginsburned 10.00 3.4 6-1
10 10 Group Hug 20.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 Flags Up 6.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Notary 20.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Trashtalkinyankee 30.00 4.4 8-1
11 11 Perfect Silent Cat 30.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 Leblon 50.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Bern N Ash 50.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Angkor 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Clark S. Presented By Norton Healthcare

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Night Ops 15.00 1.8 3-1
6 6 Chess Chief 30.00 2 4-1
7 7 Militarist 50.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 King Fury 12.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Dr Post 5.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Midnight Bourbon 1.60 3.3 6-1
8 8 Maxfield 1.20 5.4 10-1
4 4 Happy Saver 8.00 6.8 13-1

RACE NUMBER 12 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Cousteau 4.00 1.3 2-1
11 11 Mish 8.00 2.1 4-1
12 12 A C Expressway 10.00 2.2 4-1
9 9 Pirate Rick 10.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Brew Crew 15.00 4.2 8-1
10 10 Extreme 10.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 On Your Mark 5.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Critical Threat 15.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Greener Pastures 5.00 6 11-1
4 4 Tango Charlie 10.00 6.8 13-1
5 5 No Que No 20.00 7.2 14-1
6 6 One Fast Cat 6.00 9.6 18-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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