November 21, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Jingle | 15.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lemon and Diem | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Colombiano | 30.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bebop Shoes | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Murdo | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Americain Joey | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sir Michael | 3.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | News Box | 3.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Berate | 4.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Epona Bay | 10.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Temper Time | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sovereign Appeal | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Upandcomingstar | 1.80 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bahama Mischief | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Memphis Cash Queen | 10.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Undecoded | 10.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Coco Puff | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Vow | 12.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ball Gown | 12.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Deronda | 20.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Triple P | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Lady Scarlet | 0.80 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Spankhurst | 15.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Beachwalker | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Royal Tryst | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mister Candy Ride | 2.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Violent Pass | 4.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Optimus Kat | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Fed Money | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 8 | Stud Puppy | 20.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Alternate Nights | 15.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Al Millon Bob | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Helluva Life | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Thunder Ahead | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Mr. Biffle | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Englander | 3.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bold Minister | 4.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | He’s Pretty Lucky | 4.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Southern Rags | 3.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sin City Slick | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Rhett Thomas | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Beaver Hat | 6.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Major Fed | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dean Martini | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | You’re to Blame | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Beau Luminarie | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Summer Assault | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Olliemyboy | 5.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Thundering Creed | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Minute Waltz | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Kona Kai | 20.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | La Tourista | 30.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Gerri B | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Street of Dreams | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Color of Dawn | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Midnight Ballerina | 4.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 4 | Sounion | 12.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Flap Jack | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Shackleford’s Joy | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Savvy | 20.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 6 | Beverly Park | 1.60 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Isolate | 8.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Strike Me Down | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Lamartine (BRZ) | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Shoplifted | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Full Authority | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Mo’s Mojo | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 11 | I’ll Figure It Out | 4.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Arrow Strike | 12.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Sensei Lawrence | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Tee Burns | 15.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Nate’s Revenge | 12.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Heffner | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Combat Medal | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Can Man Do | 15.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Prayforpeace | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Blowdacoalwhistle | 20.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Benny’s Fiddle | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Oneparticulrharbor | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Smarty John | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.