November 20, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Social Engagement | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Moon Over Tuscany | 2.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Alittlesliceof Pie | 2.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Soddy Daisy | 12.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Pinkaboo | 4.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | My Daddy’s Trainer | 15.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Kass’ Choice | 20.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Silent Power | 12.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Sonnyisnotsofunny | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Kavod | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1A | 7 | Chismoso | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Suburban Court | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Rumble Strip Ron | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 6 | Ain’t Straight | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Speighty Sense | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Glassato | 12.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Midnight J J | 15.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Dahtestes Hero | 12.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Brazil Nut | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Math Man | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cachirulo | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1A | 5 | Eli | 8.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Rithmicallea | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 4 | Liveryman | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Waiver Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Make My Own Luck | 20.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Holiday Ticket | 5.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Money Mike | 1.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Joyride | 15.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Scary Larry | 10.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | My Miracle Man | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Hurry On Out | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lavender Earl | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Ain’t No Elmers | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Headland | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Shesomajestic | 10.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Palace Avenger | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Li’l Tootsie | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dontletsweetfoolya | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Reid’s Fangirl | 4.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Stanley Market | 8.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Allocate | 10.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Purrfect Mistress | 12.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Risata | 20.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Lil’ Bit of Chrome | 20.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Maresias | 10.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Pappysaysyes | 15.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | La Neblina | 30.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Cost a Fortune | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Tethered | 20.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Scintillating Star | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Becauseofthebrave | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Knelcock | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Lace Revolution | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Exceeding | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Legerity | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Late Night Lady | 4.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dunvegan Doll | 8.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | La Crete | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Frosted Diamond | 15.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Opening Night | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Please Be Kind | 15.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | My Sweetness | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Miss Mosaic | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Center Aisle | 1.60 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Slam Dunk | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Compelling Smile | 15.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Farsighted | 15.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Recoded | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sun Path | 2.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 7 | Gulfstream Way | 8.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Here Mi Song | 8.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | King’s Mischief | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Pirate Rick | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 9 | Pledgeofallegiance | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1A | 6 | Ready to Answer | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Name Rejected | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 10 | Unitedandresolute | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 8 | Tulane Tryst | 4.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 3 | Cool Quest | 3.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Chilukki S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | She Can’t Sing | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Obligatory | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sally’s Curlin | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Miss Bigly | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Princess Causeway | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Pass the Plate | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Matera | 3.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Its Cold in Dehere | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Run the Tap | 8.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Take a Stand | 5.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Al Qahira | 10.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Glacken’s Cause | 30.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Fabulous Fanny | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Liscolvin | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dame Joviale | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Rhubarb Martini | 20.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Camaraderie | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.