November 18, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Miss Commish | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Willyoubemine | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Malibu Marlee | 12.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Double Dawn | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Social Circle | 2.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lea Ro | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Landed Gentry | 3.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Still Carrying On | 5.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mrs. Nushi | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bourbonwithginger | 8.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Zawish | 6.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Miss Matchmaker | 5.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | My Friend Amy | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | My Bariley | 12.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mr. Tip | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Leader of Men | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cancellara | 30.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Thomas Shelby | 0.60 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Intrepid Heart | 3.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Salute the Flag | 6.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Oscarette | 1.20 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | High Con | 10.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Esperer (FR) | 12.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | April in Paris | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Our Wonsaponatime | 20.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | First Kitten | 15.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Grace’s Secret | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Thirsty Owl | 12.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Rebopper | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hex | 15.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Destined for Honor | 10.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Indiana Red | 12.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Sonic Burn | 20.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Commodore Perry | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tiz the Journey | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Opus Equus | 2.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Consider | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | John’s Rock | 8.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Gigging | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | American Tattoo (ARG) | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Knight’s Cross | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Little Menace | 1.80 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Artemus Eagle | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Elevator Pitch | 6.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Gus Piazza | 5.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Good Luck Charm | 8.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Storm’s Reflection | 20.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | River Shannon | 20.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Habitus | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Bagboss | 0.80 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Poquito Man | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Super Chianti | 8.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Frost Point | 1.60 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Misty Veil | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Suki | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tellmeonasunday | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Guana Cay | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Foolery | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Roc’s Princess | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Pinch Hitter | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Doctor Nash | 3.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Requisition | 5.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Tizabigmick | 15.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Group Eighteen | 20.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Stavanger | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Beartoe | 20.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Yasuke | 20.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Napa Valley | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Knightly Mischief | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Major Lloyd | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | East of India | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.