November 14, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Sonic City | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Miacomet | 1.80 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Country Captain | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Vail of Honor | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Loving Lucky | 8.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Seattlesway | 15.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | In Sky We Trust | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Aggressivity | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Long Term Thinking | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Arareco Lake | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kadri | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Donnels Creek | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Dance On Over | 4.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sky Factor | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sequaya | 20.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lady Protonico | 10.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Paulas Game | 10.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Momma Rio | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Time’s On My Side | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Golden Account | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Zero Point Zero | 3.50 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Time for Glory | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Trumpet Lilly | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sum Kinda Pretty | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Right Trappe | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | A Little Flyer | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bayshore Foxes | 4.50 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Wave of Goodness | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Coltonator | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | League of Shadows | 12.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Verb | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | American Mandate | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Heart Rhythm | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mr. Hustle | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Fully Connected | 6.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mumayaz | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Higher Standard | 6.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Pressure | 6.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mizzen Man | 15.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Atras | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Inexorable | 15.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Stirdatpot | 15.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Jackys Back | 20.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Back to Normal | 1.80 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Lost in Limbo | 20.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Cove Blue | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Tiz Our Turn | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Alexandros | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Impressed | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Machismo | 3.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Drena’s Star | 4.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Yes He Can | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Divine Leader | 6.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Race Driver | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Rob the Rich | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Home Brew | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ready Pursuit | 12.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Magnolia Midnight | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Zip It Scotty | 30.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Big Boss Ben | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Blue Kentucky | 3.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lucky Shot | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Baladi | 2.50 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Social Matrix | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Jaccaci | 6.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Delightof the Nile | 8.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Fast and Flirty | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Clay’s Cloud Burst | 30.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Mitigation | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Coco Puff | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Valentina Day | 15.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bernabreezy | 20.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | My Aim Is True | 15.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Loved Reiko | 20.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Trobairitz | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Rhubarb Martini | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | La Crete | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Please Be Kind | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.