November 11, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Roulette | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Amazing Rocket | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mountain Time | 12.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Calico Joe | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Windcracker | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Freer | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Jason Be Good | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Well Spent | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Field Daisey | 15.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Escape Fund | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lichita | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Blossom Road | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Kewpie Doll | 1.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 3 | La Chapeau | 12.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Hostile Princess | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Making Progress | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Cha Cha Mission | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | I’m Stylin | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Benedictinesisters | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Kitchen Table | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Wicked Intent | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Shellby | 20.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Someone Said So | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Prodigy Doll | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Abrogate | 1.20 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Miss Speedy | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Moon Over Tuscany | 15.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Joy in the Battle | 12.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Purity | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Dawson Springs | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sonnyneedsmoney | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Golden Bow | 15.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Redrightreturning | 8.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Offensive Charge | 20.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Keino | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | My Daddy’s Trainer | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | First Royal | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Miss McBride | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Twentytwenty Hoax | 12.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Street Missy | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Wild Empress | 10.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mscovertoperation | 30.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Princess Lea | 1.40 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fits the Jill | 12.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Savoy | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Gunner Paul | 4.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | El Ahijado | 20.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mists of Time | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Amani’s Eagle | 2.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Jay Vee Bee | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Perfect Cut | 4.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Eye of the Cat | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Schmoozin | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Jack Van Berg | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ready to Roll | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rockstar Ro | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Chief Howcome | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Beverly Park | 2.50 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pletcher | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Edge to Edge | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 7 | Treasury | 15.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Carmichael | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Hombrazo | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 6 | Cousin Larry | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tiz Rye Time | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 3 | Leading West | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Eastside Cool | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1A | 5 | Palace Coup | 5.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 9 | Gimme Some Mo | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 8 | Amongst Friends | 6.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.