November 6, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Taptime | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Good Penny | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Joy of Treasure | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hashtag Winner | 15.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Nostalgia | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | You Can Be Magic | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Frolic More | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | The Queens Jules | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Alex’s Strike | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Holding Fast | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Fire Marshall Bill | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Belle Tapisserie | 2.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Mo Betta | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Big Nick | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tango Charlie | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Palatial Times | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Critical Threat | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lookin for Loki | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Unified Star | 20.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Stealth Fighter | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | First Glimpse | 12.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Money Lender | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Exit | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Flagstone | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Jolly Tommy | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Brazil Nut | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bourbon Delight | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ashwins Orb | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Blues Tune | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Carbonite | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Deep State | 5.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Golden Gavel | 10.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tartufo | 1.80 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sticky Issue | 10.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Group Hug | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | League of Legends | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Surveillance | 2.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Bitter Vixen | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Eden | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Queen’s Table | 20.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mystic Dreams | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Aidanike | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Peyton’s College | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Bachelorette | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Judy’s Design | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Sammoo | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Pirate Rick | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Somes Sound | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Outlier | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Devil’s Tower | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | On Your Mark | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | War Savvy | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | One Fast Cat | 1.40 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | No Que No | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Hidden Wonder | 4.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Our Souper Love | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Savo Island | 4.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Clay’s Opal Indy | 20.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Eclipsed | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bombdiggity | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Super Fire | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Lady Jeopardy | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cancel This | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Laser Locked | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Wicked Wonder | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Happy American | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Claytnthelionheart | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Allege | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Taishan | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Last Samurai | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Huge Bigly | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | What a Country | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Dynadrive | 4.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Intrepid Heart | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Bet On Sunshine S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Rough Entry | 8.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Atoka | 12.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Necker Island | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bango | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sir Alfred James | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Vertical Threat | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mucho | 2.50 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Long Weekend | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Cody’s Wish | 1.60 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pledgeofallegiance | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Capt. Maestri | 30.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Divine Leader | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Scarlet Fusion | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Bears Watching | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Perfect Silent Cat | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Island Boy | 30.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mr. Tip | 8.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Anneau d’Or | 6.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hunt the Front | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Malibu Star | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Defeater | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Myopic | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Ottothelegend | 12.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.